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MLB · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Final score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 · 6 Philadelphia Phillies. 27 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.14 | +6.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.81 | +79.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cooper Pratt | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.94 | +51.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| William Contreras | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.28 | +50.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.39 | +48.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Yelich | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.68 | +46.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.23 | +45.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.76 | +41.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.18 | +40.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.89 | +36.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.17 | +33.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.65 | +23.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryson Stott | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.38 | +20.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.68 | +20.7% | 3 | WIN |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.45 | +19.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +16.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.06 | +8.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.84 | +7.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.68 | +6.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.80 | +5.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Justin Crawford | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.06 | +5.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.16 | +5.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.50 | +3.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.56 | +2.3% | 2 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.71 | +2.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 1.5 | 2.97 | +1.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.78 | +0.9% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewersthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 33.3% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers | 26 | 42.3% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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