NBA · Points Props

Best NBA points props

The NBA players whose points props the model has hit on most often. 3,119 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.

Picks tracked3119

Wins1599

Losses1520

Hit rate51.3%

Player leaderboard — Points

Players with at least 5 graded model picks on points, ranked by hit rate.

Player	Team	Tracked	W	L	Hit rate
Jalen Duren	Detroit Pistons	52	52	0	100.0%
Anthony Edwards	Minnesota Timberwolves	46	46	0	100.0%
Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	42	42	0	100.0%
Sam Merrill	Cleveland Cavaliers	17	17	0	100.0%
Jose Alvarado	New York Knicks	5	5	0	100.0%
Paul George	Philadelphia 76ers	42	40	2	95.2%
Tyrese Maxey	Philadelphia 76ers	41	39	2	95.1%
Naz Reid	Minnesota Timberwolves	41	37	4	90.2%
OG Anunoby	New York Knicks	18	15	3	83.3%
Caris LeVert	Detroit Pistons	23	19	4	82.6%
Terrence Shannon Jr.	Minnesota Timberwolves	38	31	7	81.6%
Cade Cunningham	Detroit Pistons	59	47	12	79.7%
Jaylon Tyson	Cleveland Cavaliers	42	32	10	76.2%
Rudy Gobert	Minnesota Timberwolves	58	43	15	74.1%
Marcus Smart	Los Angeles Lakers	50	37	13	74.0%
Mitchell Robinson	New York Knicks	46	34	12	73.9%
Julius Randle	Minnesota Timberwolves	47	34	13	72.3%
Jarrett Allen	Cleveland Cavaliers	65	47	18	72.3%
Ayo Dosunmu	Minnesota Timberwolves	46	33	13	71.7%
Austin Reaves	Los Angeles Lakers	49	35	14	71.4%
Cason Wallace	Oklahoma City Thunder	62	44	18	71.0%
Isaiah Hartenstein	Oklahoma City Thunder	64	44	20	68.8%
De'Aaron Fox	San Antonio Spurs	79	52	27	65.8%
Keldon Johnson	San Antonio Spurs	76	49	27	64.5%
Devin Vassell	San Antonio Spurs	84	53	31	63.1%
Daniss Jenkins	Detroit Pistons	58	34	24	58.6%
Stephon Castle	San Antonio Spurs	84	49	35	58.3%
Mikal Bridges	New York Knicks	61	33	28	54.1%
Victor Wembanyama	San Antonio Spurs	84	42	42	50.0%
Miles McBride	New York Knicks	58	29	29	50.0%

Recent Points picks

The last 20 points props the model rated positive expected value, across every NBA player.

Date	Player	Team	Pick	Line	Odds	Actual	Result
Jun 11	Luke Kornet	San Antonio Spurs	over	1.5	1.68	0	LOSS
Jun 11	Jose Alvarado	New York Knicks	over	2.5	1.83	8	WIN
Jun 11	Jordan Clarkson	New York Knicks	over	3.5	1.95	2	LOSS
Jun 11	Mitchell Robinson	New York Knicks	over	3.5	1.90	2	LOSS
Jun 11	Miles McBride	New York Knicks	over	4.5	1.95	0	LOSS
Jun 11	Keldon Johnson	San Antonio Spurs	over	5.5	1.77	2	LOSS
Jun 11	Landry Shamet	New York Knicks	under	7.5	1.90	0	WIN
Jun 11	Julian Champagnie	San Antonio Spurs	under	9.5	1.83	5	WIN
Jun 11	Josh Hart	New York Knicks	over	10.5	1.99	6	LOSS
Jun 11	Mikal Bridges	New York Knicks	over	12.5	2.01	7	LOSS
Jun 11	Devin Vassell	San Antonio Spurs	over	12.5	1.79	18	WIN
Jun 11	De'Aaron Fox	San Antonio Spurs	over	14.5	1.98	18	WIN
Jun 11	Stephon Castle	San Antonio Spurs	under	15.5	1.97	13	WIN
Jun 11	OG Anunoby	New York Knicks	over	16.5	1.93	33	WIN
Jun 11	Karl-Anthony Towns	New York Knicks	over	17.5	1.88	13	LOSS
Jun 11	Victor Wembanyama	San Antonio Spurs	under	26.5	1.93	24	WIN
Jun 11	Jalen Brunson	New York Knicks	under	27.5	1.95	36	LOSS
Jun 11	Luke Kornet	San Antonio Spurs	over	1.5	1.78	0	LOSS
Jun 11	Jose Alvarado	New York Knicks	over	2.5	1.83	8	WIN
Jun 11	Mitchell Robinson	New York Knicks	over	3.5	1.77	2	LOSS

Today’s points edges, in the dashboard

Members get every NBA points prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.

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