NBA · Points Props

Best NBA points props

The NBA players whose points props the model has hit on most often. 3,323 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.

Picks tracked3323

Wins1698

Losses1622

Hit rate51.1%

Player leaderboard: Points

Players with at least 5 graded model picks on points, ranked by hit rate.

Player	Team	Tracked	W	L	Hit rate
Jalen Duren	Detroit Pistons	53	53	0	100.0%
Anthony Edwards	Minnesota Timberwolves	48	48	0	100.0%
Sam Merrill	Cleveland Cavaliers	18	18	0	100.0%
Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	43	42	1	97.7%
Paul George	Philadelphia 76ers	42	40	2	95.2%
Tyrese Maxey	Philadelphia 76ers	43	40	3	93.0%
Naz Reid	Minnesota Timberwolves	41	37	4	90.2%
OG Anunoby	New York Knicks	24	21	3	87.5%
Caris LeVert	Detroit Pistons	23	19	4	82.6%
Cade Cunningham	Detroit Pistons	60	48	12	80.0%
Terrence Shannon Jr.	Minnesota Timberwolves	39	31	8	79.5%
Jaylon Tyson	Cleveland Cavaliers	43	33	10	76.7%
Marcus Smart	Los Angeles Lakers	50	37	13	74.0%
Rudy Gobert	Minnesota Timberwolves	60	44	16	73.3%
Ayo Dosunmu	Minnesota Timberwolves	47	34	13	72.3%
Julius Randle	Minnesota Timberwolves	47	34	13	72.3%
Cason Wallace	Oklahoma City Thunder	64	46	18	71.9%
Jarrett Allen	Cleveland Cavaliers	66	47	19	71.2%
Mitchell Robinson	New York Knicks	49	34	15	69.4%
Austin Reaves	Los Angeles Lakers	51	35	16	68.6%
Isaiah Hartenstein	Oklahoma City Thunder	66	45	21	68.2%
Keldon Johnson	San Antonio Spurs	79	52	27	65.8%
De'Aaron Fox	San Antonio Spurs	85	53	30	63.9%
Jose Alvarado	New York Knicks	8	5	3	62.5%
Stephon Castle	San Antonio Spurs	88	53	35	60.2%
Devin Vassell	San Antonio Spurs	88	53	35	60.2%
Daniss Jenkins	Detroit Pistons	58	34	24	58.6%
Mikal Bridges	New York Knicks	67	36	31	53.7%
Victor Wembanyama	San Antonio Spurs	88	46	42	52.3%
LeBron James	Los Angeles Lakers	43	21	22	48.8%

Recent Points picks

The last 20 points props the model rated positive expected value, across every NBA player.

Date	Player	Team	Pick	Line	Odds	Actual	Result
Oct 26	De'Andre Hunter	Sacramento Kings	over	10.5	1.90	7	LOSS
Oct 26	Domantas Sabonis	Sacramento Kings	under	18.5	1.96	15	WIN
Oct 26	Zach LaVine	Sacramento Kings	over	20.5	1.84	37	WIN
Oct 25	Duncan Robinson	Detroit Pistons	under	13.5	1.82	21	LOSS
Oct 25	John Collins	Detroit Pistons	over	14.5	1.95	16	WIN
Oct 25	LeBron James	Philadelphia 76ers	over	19.5	1.93	18	LOSS
Oct 25	Jaylen Brown	Philadelphia 76ers	under	25.5	1.86	16	WIN
Oct 25	Tyrese Maxey	Philadelphia 76ers	under	26.5	1.91	29	LOSS
Oct 25	Cade Cunningham	Detroit Pistons	under	26.5	1.93	26	WIN
Oct 25	Jamal Shead	Toronto Raptors	over	5.5	1.79	4	LOSS
Oct 25	Jakob Poeltl	Toronto Raptors	over	8.5	2.03	0	LOSS
Oct 25	Terrence Shannon Jr.	Minnesota Timberwolves	under	8.5	1.97	15	LOSS
Oct 25	Rudy Gobert	Minnesota Timberwolves	over	8.5	1.78	8	LOSS
Oct 25	Jonathan Kuminga	Minnesota Timberwolves	over	11.5	1.96	13	WIN
Oct 25	Ayo Dosunmu	Minnesota Timberwolves	under	12.5	1.93	9	WIN
Oct 25	Jaden McDaniels	Minnesota Timberwolves	under	13.5	1.88	14	LOSS
Oct 25	Immanuel Quickley	Toronto Raptors	over	15.5	1.94	19	WIN
Oct 25	LaMelo Ball	Minnesota Timberwolves	over	18.5	1.89	15	LOSS
Oct 25	Scottie Barnes	Toronto Raptors	under	19.5	1.85	0	WIN
Oct 25	Anthony Edwards	Minnesota Timberwolves	under	27.5	1.90	26	WIN

Today’s points edges, in the dashboard

Members get every NBA points prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.

Apply for access →