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NFL · Receptions Props
Best NFL receptions props
The NFL players whose receptions props the model has hit on most often. 1,790 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player leaderboard: Receptions
Players with at least 5 graded model picks on receptions, ranked by hit rate.
| Player | Team | Tracked | W | L | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles | 12 | 12 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | 11 | 11 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Elijah Higgins | Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Ted Hurst III | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| John Metchie III | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Cleveland Browns | 13 | 12 | 1 | 92.3% |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | 12 | 11 | 1 | 91.7% |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | 12 | 11 | 1 | 91.7% |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | 12 | 11 | 1 | 91.7% |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | 12 | 11 | 1 | 91.7% |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | 8 | 7 | 1 | 87.5% |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | 8 | 7 | 1 | 87.5% |
| Rashid Shaheed | Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 7 | 1 | 87.5% |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | 14 | 12 | 2 | 85.7% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | 14 | 12 | 2 | 85.7% |
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 6 | 1 | 85.7% |
| Malachi Fields | New York Giants | 7 | 6 | 1 | 85.7% |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13 | 11 | 2 | 84.6% |
| Michael Wilson | Arizona Cardinals | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83.3% |
| Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83.3% |
| Woody Marks | Houston Texans | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83.3% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Philadelphia Eagles | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83.3% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Nico Collins | Houston Texans | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | 14 | 3 | 82.4% |
Recent Receptions picks
The last 20 receptions props the model rated positive expected value, across every NFL player.
| Date | Player | Team | Pick | Line | Odds | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | Theo Johnson | New York Giants | over | 0.5 | 1.60 | 1 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Cam Skattebo | New York Giants | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | 3 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Devin Singletary | New York Giants | over | 1.5 | 2.01 | 0 | LOSS |
| Nov 13 | Darnell Mooney | New York Giants | over | 1.5 | 1.98 | 2 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Austin Ekeler | Washington Commanders | over | 1.5 | 1.96 | 4 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Treylon Burks | Washington Commanders | under | 2.5 | 1.56 | 2 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | under | 2.5 | 1.62 | 1 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Antonio Williams | Washington Commanders | under | 3.5 | 2.05 | 2 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Chig Okonkwo | Washington Commanders | under | 3.5 | 2.17 | 4 | LOSS |
| Nov 13 | Stefon Diggs | Washington Commanders | over | 4.5 | 2.28 | 6 | WIN |
| Nov 13 | Isaiah Likely | New York Giants | under | 4.5 | 1.97 | 9 | LOSS |
| Nov 10 | Ben Yurosek | Minnesota Vikings | under | 0.5 | 2.07 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | over | 1.5 | 2.70 | 4 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | Ty Johnson | Buffalo Bills | over | 2.5 | 2.35 | 2 | LOSS |
| Nov 10 | Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings | under | 3.5 | 1.87 | 2 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | under | 3.5 | 2.06 | 3 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | under | 4.5 | 1.64 | 4 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | under | 4.5 | 1.78 | 4 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | under | 6.5 | 1.86 | 3 | WIN |
| Nov 9 | Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | under | 0.5 | 2.23 | 0 | WIN |
Today’s receptions edges, in the dashboard
Members get every NFL receptions prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.