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NFL · Receptions Props
Best NFL receptions props
The NFL players whose receptions props the model has hit on most often. 580 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player leaderboard: Receptions
Players with at least 5 graded model picks on receptions, ranked by hit rate.
| Player | Team | Tracked | W | L | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons | 9 | 9 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Trey McBride | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Michael Wilson | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Darren Waller | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Chris Brooks | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Jaylin Noel | Houston Texans | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Tennessee Titans | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Stefon Diggs | Washington Commanders | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Jalen Coker | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80.0% |
Recent Receptions picks
The last 20 receptions props the model rated positive expected value, across every NFL player.
| Date | Player | Team | Pick | Line | Odds | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | over | 1.5 | 1.99 | 0 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | under | 1.5 | 2.26 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 2.5 | 1.62 | 1 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | over | 2.5 | 2.10 | 3 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Dontayvion Wicks | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 3.5 | 1.64 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | over | 3.5 | 2.02 | 4 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | over | 3.5 | 1.85 | 7 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | DeVonta Smith | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 5.5 | 1.93 | 6 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | over | 1.5 | 1.85 | 0 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | under | 1.5 | 2.07 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 2.5 | 1.65 | 1 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | over | 2.5 | 1.95 | 3 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | under | 2.5 | 2.27 | 6 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Dontayvion Wicks | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | over | 3.5 | 1.93 | 4 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | over | 3.5 | 1.75 | 7 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | DeVonta Smith | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 5.5 | 1.93 | 6 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles | under | 2.5 | 1.62 | 1 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | over | 2.5 | 2.05 | 3 | WIN |
| Sep 29 | Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | 6 | LOSS |
Today’s receptions edges, in the dashboard
Members get every NFL receptions prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.