MLB · Tue, May 12, 2026
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Final score: San Diego Padres 4 – 6 Milwaukee Brewers. 15 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.79 | +3.2% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.87 | +1.3% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.33 | +52.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.17 | +38.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| William Contreras | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.78 | +38.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.94 | +38.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Matt Waldron | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.90 | +37.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.08 | +36.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ramon Laureano | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +25.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.88 | +18.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.56 | +16.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.07 | +13.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.59 | +12.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Freddy Fermin | San Diego Padres | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.26 | +3.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +3.3% | 1 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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