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MLB · Thu, Jul 2, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 5 · 2 Kansas City Royals. 16 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.83 | +5.4% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 1.76 | +56.2% | 8 | LOSS |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.28 | +53.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Tolbert | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.93 | +35.8% | n/a | PUSH |
| Lane Thomas | Kansas City Royals | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +24.0% | 2 | LOSS |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.66 | +21.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.78 | +17.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Starling Marte | Kansas City Royals | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +17.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.55 | +15.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +13.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Cedric Mullins | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.65 | +10.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.64 | +8.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +2.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.69 | +2.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +2.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +1.0% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Kansas City Royals or Tampa Bay Raysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 17 | 41.2% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 25 | 40.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals | 9 | 22.2% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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