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MLB · Fri, Aug 28, 2026
San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays
Final score: San Diego Padres 4 · 9 Tampa Bay Rays. 16 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 7.5 | 1.85 | +5.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.31 | +51.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.18 | +36.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.29 | +32.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.92 | +31.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.11 | +26.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.13 | +25.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.70 | +24.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.89 | +22.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.54 | +18.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.20 | +16.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.84 | +13.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.11 | +7.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.30 | +6.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Luis Rengifo | San Diego Padres | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.49 | +5.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.29 | +0.4% | 0 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Tampa Bay Rays or San Diego Padresthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 14.3% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 100.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
Members receive the daily Parlay of the Day plus every positive-EV pick the model generates across NBA, MLB and NHL match lines and player props. Membership is by application.