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MLB · Thu, Sep 10, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 1 · 3 Atlanta Braves. 19 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +7.7% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.33 | +51.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.08 | +34.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.95 | +28.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +26.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.02 | +19.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.52 | +18.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Martin Perez | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.11 | +17.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.47 | +16.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.21 | +15.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.70 | +14.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.59 | +12.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.03 | +9.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.92 | +5.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.86 | +4.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.32 | +3.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Atlanta Braves | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.13 | +3.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jorge Mateo | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.27 | +2.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.51 | +0.6% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Braves or Tampa Bay Raysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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