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MLB · Fri, Sep 11, 2026
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays
Final score: Houston Astros 1 · 3 Tampa Bay Rays. 6 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 7.5 | 1.95 | +0.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.21 | +35.7% | n/a | PUSH |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +24.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +23.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Jorge Mateo | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.83 | +15.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.34 | +10.0% | 2 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Tampa Bay Rays or Houston Astrosthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners | 10 | 50.0% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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