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MLB · Sun, Sep 20, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Final score: Boston Red Sox 1 · 5 Tampa Bay Rays. 9 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 8.5 | 1.85 | +7.2% | WIN |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.24 | +1.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 2.16 | +42.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Adley Rutschman | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +36.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.18 | +33.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.48 | +15.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.62 | +10.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +0.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Trevor Story | Boston Red Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.63 | +0.3% | 1 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Soxthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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