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NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Final score: Dallas Cowboys 34 · 30 Houston Texans. 38 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | -3 | 1.95 | +1.8% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 48.5 | 1.95 | +1.1% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | under | 45.5 | 1.87 | +42.7% | 24 | WIN |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.88 | +40.3% | 24 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.87 | +40.0% | 21 | LOSS |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.98 | +38.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| Woody Marks | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | over | 33.5 | 1.89 | +36.3% | 22 | LOSS |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.99 | +29.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.88 | +25.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 33.5 | 1.89 | +23.6% | 37 | LOSS |
| Woody Marks | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.89 | +23.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.90 | +21.8% | 37 | LOSS |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.89 | +18.4% | 19 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 58.5 | 1.89 | +16.7% | 62 | WIN |
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 24.5 | 1.91 | +15.9% | 11 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 59.5 | 1.92 | +15.9% | 62 | WIN |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.01 | +15.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.65 | +14.4% | 17 | LOSS |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.10 | +14.0% | 0 | WIN |
| George Pickens | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | over | 67.5 | 1.91 | +12.9% | 75 | WIN |
| David Montgomery | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.90 | +12.3% | 19 | WIN |
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.85 | +12.2% | 3 | WIN |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.09 | +12.2% | 17 | LOSS |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.94 | +12.0% | 7 | LOSS |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.84 | +11.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.84 | +11.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| George Pickens | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.75 | +11.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| George Pickens | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | over | 68.5 | 1.90 | +10.7% | 75 | WIN |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.91 | +9.1% | 46 | WIN |
| Woody Marks | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.12 | +8.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.88 | +8.7% | 9 | WIN |
| Kayshon Boutte | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.55 | +8.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.90 | +7.6% | 9 | WIN |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans | Receiving Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.92 | +6.7% | 46 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Passing Yards | over | 266.5 | 1.89 | +6.0% | 335 | WIN |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | Rushing Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.92 | +5.2% | 12 | LOSS |
| Foster Moreau | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +2.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Jaylin Noel | Houston Texans | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +1.7% | 3 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Houston Texans or Dallas Cowboysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | 55 | 63.6% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 58 | 53.4% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 14, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | 27 | 25.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | 32 | 40.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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