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NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Final score: Denver Broncos 14 · 24 San Francisco 49ers. 25 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 48.5 | 1.87 | +1.8% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -3 | 2.00 | +1.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Bryant | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.92 | +54.8% | 47 | WIN |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Passing Yards | over | 234.5 | 1.88 | +46.2% | 218 | LOSS |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.85 | +42.6% | 25 | WIN |
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.91 | +32.8% | 40 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.82 | +27.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.81 | +26.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.79 | +25.9% | 2 | WIN |
| George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | over | 64.5 | 1.91 | +25.3% | 70 | WIN |
| Pat Bryant | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.25 | +25.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.87 | +23.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.15 | +21.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Adam Trautman | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 4.5 | 1.88 | +11.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.90 | +10.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.89 | +10.6% | 29 | WIN |
| George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.69 | +9.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.88 | +8.8% | 35 | WIN |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.93 | +8.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Adam Trautman | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 1.56 | +8.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Evan Engram | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.16 | +6.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Rushing Yards | over | 67.5 | 1.89 | +5.6% | 52 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | under | 222.5 | 1.88 | +4.0% | 214 | WIN |
| Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.88 | +3.6% | 18 | WIN |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.87 | +2.4% | 68 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving San Francisco 49ers or Denver Broncosthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 28, 2026 | Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | 46 | 56.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | 38 | 78.9% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 15, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 48.1% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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