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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final score: Indianapolis Colts 22 · 34 Pittsburgh Steelers. 33 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 43.5 | 1.93 | +6.0% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -2.5 | 1.98 | +2.8% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.24 | +2.5% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -3 | 1.85 | +1.2% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.14 | +61.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.90 | +54.7% | 34 | LOSS |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.89 | +49.8% | 47 | WIN |
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.81 | +49.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.88 | +49.4% | 83 | LOSS |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 55.5 | 1.88 | +46.8% | 47 | WIN |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.87 | +46.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 45.5 | 1.90 | +46.2% | 83 | LOSS |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.88 | +45.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.66 | +42.3% | 0 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 52.5 | 1.90 | +25.8% | 12 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.27 | +23.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.78 | +20.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.95 | +19.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.67 | +17.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.71 | +12.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.97 | +11.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.88 | +11.1% | 6 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.88 | +10.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.88 | +9.2% | 101 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.88 | +7.8% | 87 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.70 | +6.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | over | 29.5 | 1.92 | +5.8% | 45 | WIN |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.87 | +5.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 86.5 | 1.89 | +5.2% | 45 | WIN |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 85.5 | 1.91 | +4.8% | 45 | WIN |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.14 | +3.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.93 | +3.5% | 37 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 21.5 | 1.88 | +1.2% | 12 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Pittsburgh Steelers or Indianapolis Colts that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | 42 | 64.3% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 2, 2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | 36 | 52.8% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 58 | 53.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 50 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | 23 | 60.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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