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NFL · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Final score: Dallas Cowboys 27 · 23 Indianapolis Colts. 38 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.90 | +14.7% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 51.5 | 1.91 | +12.8% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 5.5 | 1.87 | +7.1% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 4.5 | 1.95 | +6.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Goodson | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.93 | +79.0% | 77 | LOSS |
| Tyler Goodson | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.85 | +73.7% | 77 | LOSS |
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.92 | +52.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.90 | +33.8% | 44 | LOSS |
| Tyler Goodson | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +32.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.72 | +26.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.91 | +25.1% | 53 | LOSS |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.63 | +23.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | under | 72.5 | 1.88 | +21.4% | 101 | LOSS |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 43.5 | 1.92 | +21.3% | 24 | WIN |
| Seth McGowan | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.91 | +21.2% | 45 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | over | 64.5 | 1.91 | +19.4% | 46 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | over | 63.5 | 1.88 | +19.1% | 46 | LOSS |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.63 | +18.2% | 2 | WIN |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 85.5 | 1.89 | +16.2% | 195 | LOSS |
| Seth McGowan | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.89 | +15.8% | 45 | LOSS |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.88 | +15.7% | 26 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Passing TDs | under | 2.5 | 1.52 | +15.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.83 | +11.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +11.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 6.5 | 1.93 | +10.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.89 | +9.7% | 26 | WIN |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.93 | +9.3% | 10 | LOSS |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.69 | +8.3% | 4 | WIN |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 80.5 | 1.89 | +8.3% | 195 | LOSS |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.88 | +7.6% | 11 | LOSS |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Passing Yards | over | 264.5 | 1.89 | +7.3% | 335 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Passing Yards | over | 266.5 | 1.88 | +4.8% | 335 | WIN |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.93 | +3.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.87 | +2.9% | 23 | LOSS |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing Yards | over | 204.5 | 1.90 | +1.7% | 180 | LOSS |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.88 | +1.5% | 53 | LOSS |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.74 | +0.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing Yards | over | 205.5 | 1.89 | +0.1% | 180 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Indianapolis Colts or Dallas Cowboys that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys | 34 | 55.9% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | 36 | 38.9% | View → |
| Tue, Oct 27, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | 31 | 80.6% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 19, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | 30 | 60.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | 42 | 45.2% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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