What is Hit Rate?
The percentage of decided bets that won — excluding pushes.
Also known as: win rate
Hit rate alone does not tell you whether a bettor is profitable. A 60% win rate on −200 favorites is a losing strategy; a 45% win rate on +130 underdogs is winning. Always read hit rate alongside the average price (or against the price-implied break-even).
Example
172 wins, 158 losses, 4 pushes. Hit rate = 172 / 330 = 52.1%.
Related terms
Total profit divided by total stake, the cleanest single number for a sports bettor's performance.
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet pays per dollar staked if you repeated it under the same odds and probability forever.
The natural fluctuation of results around expected value — the reason a +EV strategy can still lose for weeks.
See hit rate applied to a real slate
NotaSportsGuru runs the math behind every published leg — Parlay of the Day, player props, match lines — with the model’s expected value and edge on every line.