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NFL · Passing TDs Props
Best NFL passing tds props
The NFL players whose passing tds props the model has hit on most often. 122 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player leaderboard: Passing TDs
Players with at least 5 graded model picks on passing tds, ranked by hit rate.
| Player | Team | Tracked | W | L | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Cam Ward | Tennessee Titans | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80.0% |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80.0% |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80.0% |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60.0% |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
| Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
Recent Passing TDs picks
The last 20 passing tds props the model rated positive expected value, across every NFL player.
| Date | Player | Team | Pick | Line | Odds | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | 0 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | 0 | LOSS |
| Sep 29 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | 0 | LOSS |
| Sep 28 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 28 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 1.5 | 1.93 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 28 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 1.5 | 1.88 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 28 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 1.5 | 1.88 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 28 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 1.5 | 1.79 | 2 | WIN |
| Sep 27 | Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | 3 | WIN |
| Sep 27 | Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | 4 | LOSS |
| Sep 27 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | under | 1.5 | 2.24 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 27 | Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | 3 | WIN |
| Sep 27 | Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | 4 | LOSS |
| Sep 27 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | under | 1.5 | 2.23 | 2 | LOSS |
| Sep 27 | Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | over | 1.5 | 2.35 | 3 | WIN |
Today’s passing tds edges, in the dashboard
Members get every NFL passing tds prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.