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NFL · Passing TDs Props
Best NFL passing tds props
The NFL players whose passing tds props the model has hit on most often. 345 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player leaderboard: Passing TDs
Players with at least 5 graded model picks on passing tds, ranked by hit rate.
| Player | Team | Tracked | W | L | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 9 | 1 | 90.0% |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 9 | 2 | 81.8% |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 13 | 10 | 3 | 76.9% |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75.0% |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75.0% |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73.3% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Arizona Cardinals | 12 | 8 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 4 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | 16 | 10 | 6 | 62.5% |
| Cam Ward | Tennessee Titans | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.5% |
| Sam Darnold | Seattle Seahawks | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60.0% |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 12 | 7 | 5 | 58.3% |
| Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57.1% |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | 11 | 6 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | 11 | 6 | 5 | 54.5% |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | 14 | 6 | 8 | 42.9% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 3 | 4 | 42.9% |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33.3% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33.3% |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33.3% |
| Jameis Winston | New York Giants | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33.3% |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.0% |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.0% |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25.0% |
| Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25.0% |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22.2% |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | 17 | 3 | 14 | 17.6% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 12 | 2 | 10 | 16.7% |
Recent Passing TDs picks
The last 20 passing tds props the model rated positive expected value, across every NFL player.
| Date | Player | Team | Pick | Line | Odds | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | J.J. McCarthy | New York Giants | under | 1.5 | 1.45 | 1 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | Carson Wentz | Minnesota Vikings | under | 1.5 | 1.65 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 9 | Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 9 | Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | under | 1.5 | 2.23 | 2 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Drake Maye | New England Patriots | over | 1.5 | 1.90 | 3 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Gardner Minshew II | Arizona Cardinals | under | 0.5 | 2.71 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Drew Lock | Seattle Seahawks | under | 1.5 | 1.92 | 1 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | over | 1.5 | 1.85 | 1 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | under | 0.5 | 2.84 | 1 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | under | 1.5 | 1.93 | 5 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | J.J. McCarthy | New York Giants | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | 1 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 1.5 | 1.65 | 1 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Geno Smith | New York Jets | over | 1.5 | 2.53 | 0 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | under | 2.5 | 1.52 | 2 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | under | 1.5 | 2.63 | 0 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | 1 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | under | 2.5 | 1.52 | 2 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Shedeur Sanders | Cleveland Browns | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | 2 | LOSS |
Today’s passing tds edges, in the dashboard
Members get every NFL passing tds prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.