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NFL · Passing Yards Props
Best NFL passing yards props
The NFL players whose passing yards props the model has hit on most often. 336 tracked picks since coverage started, ranked by hit rate with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player leaderboard: Passing Yards
Players with at least 5 graded model picks on passing yards, ranked by hit rate.
| Player | Team | Tracked | W | L | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80.0% |
| Cam Ward | Tennessee Titans | 11 | 8 | 3 | 72.7% |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 63.6% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 7 | 4 | 63.6% |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 11 | 7 | 4 | 63.6% |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62.5% |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.5% |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | 15 | 9 | 6 | 60.0% |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 5 | 4 | 55.6% |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | 11 | 6 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53.3% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Arizona Cardinals | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50.0% |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50.0% |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | 14 | 6 | 8 | 42.9% |
| J.J. McCarthy | New York Giants | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40.0% |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33.3% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33.3% |
| Jameis Winston | New York Giants | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33.3% |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.0% |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 3 | 10 | 23.1% |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 3 | 11 | 21.4% |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20.0% |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20.0% |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16.7% |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15.4% |
| Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9.1% |
Recent Passing Yards picks
The last 20 passing yards props the model rated positive expected value, across every NFL player.
| Date | Player | Team | Pick | Line | Odds | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | J.J. McCarthy | New York Giants | under | 211.5 | 1.88 | 293 | LOSS |
| Nov 10 | Carson Wentz | Minnesota Vikings | under | 209.5 | 1.90 | 81 | WIN |
| Nov 10 | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | over | 238.5 | 1.89 | 234 | LOSS |
| Nov 9 | Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | under | 211.5 | 1.90 | 243 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Drake Maye | New England Patriots | over | 229.5 | 1.90 | 299 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | under | 274.5 | 1.88 | 372 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Gardner Minshew II | Arizona Cardinals | under | 197.5 | 1.90 | 166 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Drew Lock | Seattle Seahawks | under | 204.5 | 1.89 | 175 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | over | 245.5 | 1.89 | 232 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | under | 246.5 | 1.89 | 216 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | under | 213.5 | 1.90 | 193 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans | over | 250.5 | 1.89 | 384 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | J.J. McCarthy | New York Giants | under | 210.5 | 1.89 | 127 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | under | 216.5 | 1.90 | 274 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | over | 247.5 | 1.90 | 228 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Geno Smith | New York Jets | over | 216.5 | 1.89 | 165 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | over | 241.5 | 1.88 | 242 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | under | 208.5 | 1.88 | 128 | WIN |
| Nov 8 | Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | over | 258.5 | 1.90 | 170 | LOSS |
| Nov 8 | Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | over | 204.5 | 1.90 | 180 | LOSS |
Today’s passing yards edges, in the dashboard
Members get every NFL passing yards prop the model rates positive expected value today, with edge and confidence on each line.