NBA · Sat, May 9, 2026
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Final score: Detroit Pistons 109 – 116 Cleveland Cavaliers. 87 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 211.5 | 1.91 | +26.1% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 212.5 | 1.87 | +23.5% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -4.5 | 1.95 | +8.3% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -5.5 | 1.93 | +5.1% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 3.5 | 3.30 | +172.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 4.5 | 2.30 | +109.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.14 | +104.3% | 4 | LOSS |
| Dennis Schroder | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 6.5 | 2.03 | +95.1% | 11 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 9.5 | 2.00 | +85.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.92 | +85.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 2.10 | +80.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 2.16 | +80.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 7.5 | 1.91 | +79.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 13.5 | 2.10 | +78.7% | 13 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.85 | +74.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 2.20 | +74.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Dennis Schroder | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.00 | +73.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 31.5 | 1.80 | +73.0% | 35 | LOSS |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 17.5 | 2.00 | +71.5% | 21 | LOSS |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.85 | +67.6% | 21 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 2.13 | +63.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 15.5 | 1.77 | +62.4% | 19 | WIN |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 14.5 | 2.05 | +62.1% | 11 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.79 | +60.8% | 3 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 1.5 | 1.62 | +58.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 1.5 | 1.71 | +55.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.66 | +55.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 1.71 | +55.0% | 10 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.92 | +51.4% | 35 | LOSS |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.65 | +49.5% | 7 | WIN |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.83 | +48.5% | 18 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 2.07 | +47.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 9.5 | 1.60 | +47.0% | 10 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 4.5 | 2.75 | +45.8% | 4 | LOSS |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.14 | +43.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 13.5 | 2.03 | +42.8% | 11 | WIN |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 10.5 | 1.84 | +42.6% | 18 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 25.5 | 1.93 | +40.1% | 35 | LOSS |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.72 | +39.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 2.5 | 1.77 | +37.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.65 | +37.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Dennis Schroder | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 10.5 | 2.00 | +36.5% | 11 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 15.5 | 1.94 | +36.4% | 13 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 11.5 | 2.01 | +36.4% | 18 | WIN |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 9.5 | 2.10 | +36.1% | 10 | LOSS |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.88 | +35.7% | 27 | WIN |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.71 | +34.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 11.5 | 1.89 | +34.9% | 4 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 19.5 | 1.97 | +34.0% | 19 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 2.5 | 2.25 | +31.1% | 5 | LOSS |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 6.5 | 1.84 | +31.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.74 | +29.4% | 5 | WIN |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.97 | +28.6% | 27 | LOSS |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.46 | +27.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 10.5 | 2.07 | +24.6% | 4 | WIN |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.88 | +24.5% | 15 | LOSS |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.83 | +24.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 1.87 | +23.0% | 8 | WIN |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.71 | +19.7% | 15 | WIN |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.76 | +19.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.68 | +19.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.16 | +18.4% | 10 | WIN |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.55 | +18.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.71 | +14.8% | 10 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.69 | +13.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 1.78 | +12.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.62 | +12.7% | 9 | WIN |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.88 | +11.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.46 | +11.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 1.93 | +11.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.27 | +9.7% | 10 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 8.5 | 2.50 | +9.5% | 7 | LOSS |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.16 | +9.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.83 | +8.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Points | over | 9.5 | 2.00 | +8.7% | 9 | LOSS |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 1.85 | +8.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 5.5 | 2.11 | +8.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.06 | +8.0% | 8 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.40 | +6.7% | 7 | LOSS |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 8.5 | 2.04 | +5.6% | 10 | LOSS |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.69 | +4.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.18 | +3.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.80 | +1.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.91 | +0.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.49 | +0.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.68 | +0.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 25.5 | 1.74 | +0.5% | 27 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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