NBA · Sat, May 9, 2026
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final score: San Antonio Spurs 115 – 108 Minnesota Timberwolves. 96 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 204.5 | 1.83 | +19.6% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 5.5 | 1.89 | +16.7% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 4.5 | 1.93 | +15.4% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 3.5 | 1.91 | +12.2% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 215.5 | 1.89 | +10.3% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 216.5 | 1.91 | +9.6% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 11.5 | 2.14 | +111.2% | 14 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.98 | +95.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 15.5 | 2.05 | +94.2% | 15 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 9.5 | 2.00 | +93.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.95 | +92.8% | 11 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.30 | +86.8% | 6 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.91 | +86.2% | 17 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.91 | +81.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.93 | +78.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.09 | +76.9% | 13 | WIN |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 5.5 | 2.07 | +75.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.91 | +73.8% | 12 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.95 | +71.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.91 | +70.2% | 17 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 29.5 | 1.83 | +69.6% | 39 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 10.5 | 1.71 | +69.3% | 12 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.14 | +68.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.99 | +67.5% | 17 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 10.5 | 1.69 | +66.0% | 9 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 32.5 | 1.83 | +63.1% | 32 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.23 | +59.4% | 2 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.87 | +58.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.88 | +57.8% | 13 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.97 | +56.5% | 13 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.81 | +55.4% | 13 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.70 | +55.0% | 13 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.83 | +54.7% | 12 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.17 | +53.6% | 12 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 12.5 | 2.01 | +53.4% | 13 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.87 | +52.7% | 18 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.88 | +51.7% | 39 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 14.5 | 2.00 | +51.1% | 17 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.77 | +50.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.79 | +49.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 12.5 | 1.90 | +48.4% | 15 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 25.5 | 1.98 | +47.9% | 39 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.57 | +47.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 2.10 | +45.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.12 | +45.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 14.5 | 1.83 | +44.6% | 12 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.63 | +43.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 15.5 | 2.00 | +42.8% | 13 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 22.5 | 1.88 | +42.1% | 32 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.85 | +37.8% | 11 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 1.74 | +37.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.18 | +36.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.93 | +36.5% | 11 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 23.5 | 1.98 | +36.2% | 32 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.75 | +35.5% | 5 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.31 | +34.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.47 | +34.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 1.81 | +32.3% | 9 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.86 | +32.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.95 | +31.2% | 13 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.77 | +30.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 9.5 | 2.03 | +28.2% | 11 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.98 | +27.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 1.5 | 1.66 | +26.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.71 | +24.7% | 7 | LOSS |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.87 | +23.9% | 14 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.83 | +23.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.48 | +23.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.13 | +23.3% | 9 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 5.5 | 2.21 | +22.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.71 | +22.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.56 | +22.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 9.5 | 2.10 | +21.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.96 | +21.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.81 | +20.9% | 7 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 11.5 | 1.82 | +20.3% | 7 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 10.5 | 1.83 | +19.9% | 13 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 19.5 | 1.83 | +19.5% | 12 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.65 | +15.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.35 | +15.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 4.5 | 1.61 | +15.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.75 | +13.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.95 | +13.0% | 18 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.99 | +12.4% | 12 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 10.5 | 2.04 | +11.0% | 7 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.73 | +10.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.42 | +10.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.21 | +10.4% | 7 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 4.5 | 2.27 | +8.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.93 | +8.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.19 | +8.1% | 14 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.61 | +7.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.82 | +5.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 4.5 | 2.26 | +3.5% | 6 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.70 | +3.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.62 | +2.1% | 6 | LOSS |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
Members receive the daily Parlay of the Day plus every positive-EV pick the model generates across NBA, MLB and NHL match lines and player props. Membership is by application.