NBA · Sun, May 10, 2026
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final score: San Antonio Spurs 109 – 114 Minnesota Timberwolves. 61 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | 5.5 | 1.89 | +16.7% | WIN |
| Spread | home | 4.5 | 1.95 | +16.0% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 215.5 | 1.91 | +10.8% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 217.5 | 1.95 | +9.4% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 218.5 | 1.93 | +7.7% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.07 | +88.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.12 | +79.5% | 11 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 7.5 | 2.02 | +75.1% | 8 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.86 | +73.3% | 8 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.99 | +70.8% | 20 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.97 | +65.8% | 24 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.99 | +65.4% | 14 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.80 | +63.2% | 20 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.81 | +60.9% | 14 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.79 | +59.5% | 24 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 12.5 | 2.04 | +59.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.21 | +58.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.99 | +58.1% | 20 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.95 | +57.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.22 | +57.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.71 | +55.9% | 11 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.82 | +55.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.85 | +55.3% | 14 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 12.5 | 2.01 | +53.4% | 14 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 14.5 | 1.98 | +49.6% | 14 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.09 | +48.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 2.02 | +47.6% | 9 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.05 | +46.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.67 | +41.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.64 | +39.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.34 | +36.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.85 | +36.4% | 10 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.81 | +34.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 2.05 | +31.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 9.5 | 2.03 | +28.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.59 | +23.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.83 | +22.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.76 | +17.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.99 | +17.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.81 | +15.4% | 10 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.12 | +15.2% | 3 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.85 | +15.2% | 12 | LOSS |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 1.66 | +10.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.94 | +9.2% | 8 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.22 | +9.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 4.5 | 2.27 | +8.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.74 | +7.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.12 | +7.4% | 6 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.93 | +7.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.83 | +6.1% | 15 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 2.01 | +5.9% | 8 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 11.5 | 2.01 | +5.4% | 10 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 4.5 | 1.93 | +4.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 25.5 | 1.93 | +3.4% | 36 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.95 | +3.1% | 12 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.24 | +2.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +2.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.81 | +2.2% | 12 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.89 | +1.0% | 15 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.60 | +0.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.85 | +0.1% | 5 | LOSS |
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