NBA · Tue, May 12, 2026
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Final score: Detroit Pistons 103 – 112 Cleveland Cavaliers. 69 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 207.5 | 1.87 | +27.7% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 212.5 | 1.95 | +26.3% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 211.5 | 1.91 | +26.1% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 213.5 | 1.95 | +25.2% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -1.5 | 1.91 | +13.8% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -3.5 | 1.91 | +9.8% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.91 | +83.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.99 | +80.2% | 16 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 8.5 | 2.02 | +74.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 2.5 | 2.31 | +71.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.99 | +70.6% | 16 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.84 | +70.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 6.5 | 1.94 | +70.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.95 | +64.0% | 43 | LOSS |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.98 | +63.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 2.13 | +63.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 28.5 | 1.81 | +60.0% | 43 | LOSS |
| Dennis Schroder | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.83 | +59.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.97 | +55.3% | 43 | LOSS |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | under | 5.5 | 1.97 | +51.2% | 1 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 18.5 | 1.95 | +47.3% | 24 | WIN |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 1.69 | +46.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | +44.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.21 | +42.0% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 14.5 | 1.78 | +40.7% | 8 | WIN |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 13.5 | 2.00 | +40.7% | 8 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 15.5 | 1.99 | +40.0% | 17 | WIN |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.79 | +36.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.63 | +35.9% | 3 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 19.5 | 1.99 | +35.4% | 24 | WIN |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.85 | +33.5% | 19 | WIN |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 2.5 | 2.27 | +32.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.32 | +31.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.97 | +30.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +30.2% | 1 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 6.5 | 1.82 | +29.7% | 11 | WIN |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.96 | +27.9% | 19 | WIN |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.46 | +27.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 4.5 | 1.88 | +27.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.08 | +27.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Sam Merrill | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.96 | +25.8% | 6 | WIN |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 1.75 | +24.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.12 | +23.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.59 | +21.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.97 | +20.9% | 17 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.69 | +20.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 10.5 | 1.99 | +19.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Dean Wade | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 0.5 | 1.57 | +19.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.78 | +19.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.99 | +18.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.54 | +17.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.72 | +16.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | over | 4.5 | 2.19 | +16.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.72 | +15.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 7.5 | 1.73 | +13.8% | 8 | WIN |
| Tobias Harris | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 1.79 | +13.5% | 8 | LOSS |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 2.13 | +11.6% | 8 | LOSS |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 9.5 | 1.70 | +10.2% | 6 | WIN |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.18 | +10.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | Points | over | 9.5 | 2.01 | +9.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Assists | under | 8.5 | 2.10 | +8.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 1.85 | +8.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 1.98 | +8.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Jarrett Allen | Cleveland Cavaliers | Points | over | 12.5 | 1.89 | +8.1% | 9 | LOSS |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 2.23 | +7.8% | 5 | WIN |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.76 | +5.4% | 5 | LOSS |
| Daniss Jenkins | Detroit Pistons | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 1.78 | +2.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Duncan Robinson | Detroit Pistons | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.51 | +1.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Max Strus | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.64 | +0.9% | 4 | WIN |
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