NBA · Wed, May 13, 2026
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Final score: Minnesota Timberwolves 97 – 126 San Antonio Spurs. 60 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | -10.5 | 1.91 | +17.4% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -9.5 | 1.91 | +14.8% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 218.5 | 1.93 | +7.7% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 217.5 | 1.87 | +7.4% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.15 | +95.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 2.5 | 1.88 | +86.1% | 5 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.08 | +76.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.87 | +73.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.84 | +67.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.96 | +65.0% | 18 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.90 | +62.7% | 27 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.95 | +62.1% | 17 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 17.5 | 1.88 | +61.4% | 17 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 12.5 | 2.06 | +60.9% | 17 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.66 | +59.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.99 | +58.1% | 17 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.20 | +57.6% | 4 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 3.5 | 1.88 | +57.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 2.20 | +55.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.93 | +55.7% | 27 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 7.5 | 1.79 | +55.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 2.11 | +54.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.03 | +51.2% | 21 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.11 | +49.8% | 4 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.77 | +48.7% | 21 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 12.5 | 1.94 | +48.0% | 12 | LOSS |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 13.5 | 1.71 | +46.4% | 17 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.69 | +43.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 1.69 | +42.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.64 | +38.6% | 4 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.81 | +33.4% | 16 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.96 | +31.8% | 12 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.99 | +28.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.99 | +26.9% | 16 | LOSS |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.84 | +26.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.93 | +20.2% | 17 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.00 | +17.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.76 | +17.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 2.05 | +15.4% | 8 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 1.61 | +15.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 1.72 | +14.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.71 | +14.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.96 | +13.6% | 12 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.94 | +13.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.16 | +9.4% | 2 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.94 | +7.5% | 5 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 2.04 | +7.5% | 10 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.17 | +6.6% | 5 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 1.96 | +6.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.96 | +6.2% | 20 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.68 | +5.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.99 | +5.3% | 17 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.94 | +5.0% | 9 | LOSS |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.51 | +4.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.68 | +4.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 10.5 | 1.91 | +3.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 4.5 | 2.23 | +2.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 1.5 | 2.40 | +1.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 1.5 | 1.71 | +1.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +1.3% | 4 | LOSS |
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