MLB · Sat, May 16, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 2 – 4 Colorado Rockies. 15 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 12 | 1.93 | +21.9% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 11.5 | 1.83 | +14.9% | WIN |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.19 | +1.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies | Strikeouts | over | 2.5 | 1.76 | +40.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | +39.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +27.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Geraldo Perdomo | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +26.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Nolan Arenado | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +24.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.56 | +19.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +15.6% | 1 | WIN |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.47 | +9.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.42 | +8.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.51 | +8.6% | 1 | WIN |
| Ildemaro Vargas | Arizona Diamondbacks | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +6.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Troy Johnston | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +1.5% | 0 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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