NBA · Sat, May 16, 2026
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final score: San Antonio Spurs 139 – 109 Minnesota Timberwolves. 53 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | 5.5 | 1.87 | +16.0% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 4.5 | 1.95 | +16.0% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 218.5 | 1.91 | +7.2% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 2.5 | 1.99 | +85.3% | 6 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.93 | +84.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.97 | +79.3% | 6 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.89 | +68.5% | 21 | WIN |
| Mike Conley | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 2.5 | 1.70 | +68.3% | 6 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 17.5 | 1.97 | +65.8% | 21 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.97 | +63.8% | 13 | WIN |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.84 | +63.5% | 13 | WIN |
| Luke Kornet | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.88 | +58.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 13.5 | 1.85 | +58.4% | 6 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.96 | +58.1% | 19 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 27.5 | 1.82 | +55.9% | 19 | WIN |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 16.5 | 1.96 | +55.7% | 32 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 7.5 | 1.76 | +52.5% | 21 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 2.07 | +51.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 12.5 | 1.95 | +48.8% | 11 | LOSS |
| Stephon Castle | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.72 | +46.4% | 11 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 6.5 | 1.92 | +46.3% | 21 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 7.5 | 1.72 | +45.1% | 7 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.70 | +43.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 1.5 | 2.26 | +43.1% | 1 | WIN |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.01 | +42.7% | 4 | WIN |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.82 | +34.1% | 10 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 1.83 | +28.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 9.5 | 2.02 | +27.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 12.5 | 2.00 | +27.5% | 10 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.14 | +23.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | over | 16.5 | 1.97 | +22.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 2.5 | 2.17 | +18.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 9.5 | 2.03 | +17.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.76 | +17.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 2.14 | +15.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Keldon Johnson | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.94 | +14.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 1.59 | +13.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.30 | +12.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.65 | +10.2% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.67 | +7.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.96 | +6.2% | 24 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 2.09 | +5.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | under | 1.5 | 2.37 | +5.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| De'Aaron Fox | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.90 | +5.3% | 9 | WIN |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.97 | +5.2% | 18 | LOSS |
| Naz Reid | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | under | 2.5 | 1.61 | +4.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Anthony Edwards | Minnesota Timberwolves | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.61 | +4.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Julius Randle | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 1.98 | +4.3% | 7 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Assists | over | 1.5 | 2.53 | +2.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Devin Vassell | San Antonio Spurs | Rebounds | under | 4.5 | 1.63 | +2.8% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.02 | +0.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | over | 8.5 | 1.78 | +0.2% | 18 | WIN |
| Julian Champagnie | San Antonio Spurs | Points | under | 9.5 | 1.76 | +0.1% | 18 | LOSS |
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