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MLB · Fri, Jul 17, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 0 · 10 Boston Red Sox. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.22 | +58.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | under | 4.5 | 2.16 | +57.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| Ryan Vilade | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.13 | +39.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.35 | +28.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.74 | +24.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.01 | +20.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.31 | +15.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jarren Duran | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.74 | +11.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Carlos Narvaez | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.31 | +10.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.60 | +10.4% | 7 | LOSS |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.33 | +7.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.18 | +4.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.29 | +3.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Masataka Yoshida | Boston Red Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.39 | +3.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.16 | +3.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 1.89 | +2.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.51 | +0.4% | 0 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Boston Red Sox or Tampa Bay Raysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 19 | 21.1% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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