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MLB · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Final score: Philadelphia Phillies 3 · 5 Atlanta Braves. 30 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.68 | +4.0% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 6.5 | 2.02 | +3.4% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmundo Sosa | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.66 | +90.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryson Stott | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.00 | +77.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bryan De La Cruz | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.21 | +68.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.70 | +60.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.75 | +56.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.50 | +55.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Jesus Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies | Strikeouts | over | 2.5 | 1.60 | +55.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.27 | +50.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.89 | +45.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Mauricio Dubon | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.59 | +37.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.32 | +36.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drake Baldwin | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.99 | +30.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.19 | +28.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.75 | +22.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.85 | +22.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.27 | +20.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.72 | +18.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.13 | +14.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 1.87 | +12.8% | 9 | LOSS |
| Ozzie Albies | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.64 | +8.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.72 | +4.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Bryson Stott | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.78 | +4.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.60 | +3.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.69 | +3.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.25 | +3.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bryan De La Cruz | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.96 | +3.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Alec Bohm | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.50 | +1.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.64 | +0.4% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Philliesthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 14 | 57.1% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 11 | 63.6% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | 4 | 75.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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