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NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Final score: Kansas City Chiefs 30 · 27 Las Vegas Raiders. 23 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | under | 47.5 | 1.95 | +8.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.90 | +53.7% | 36 | LOSS |
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +32.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.87 | +30.3% | 70 | LOSS |
| Tyquan Thornton | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.85 | +29.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.22 | +29.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 88.5 | 1.88 | +26.8% | 177 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.88 | +24.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.89 | +20.9% | 68 | WIN |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing Yards | under | 222.5 | 1.88 | +17.6% | 365 | LOSS |
| Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders | Rushing Yards | under | 59.5 | 1.91 | +17.0% | 58 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 239.5 | 1.88 | +16.5% | 225 | LOSS |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.23 | +14.9% | 2 | WIN |
| Noah Gray | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.93 | +14.7% | 17 | LOSS |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.88 | +13.9% | 44 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.59 | +9.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.75 | +7.9% | 8 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.28 | +6.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.88 | +5.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 49.5 | 1.88 | +4.8% | 15 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.02 | +3.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | +0.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Tyquan Thornton | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 20.5 | 1.92 | +0.3% | 111 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Las Vegas Raiders or Kansas City Chiefsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 41 | 39.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 15, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 48.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | 20 | 45.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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