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NFL · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Final score: New York Jets 12 · 35 Kansas City Chiefs. 39 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 5.00 | +50.0% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 48.5 | 1.87 | +7.3% | WIN |
| Spread | home | -9.5 | 1.93 | +1.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Cooper Jr. | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.80 | +44.7% | 8 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.22 | +39.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.88 | +33.6% | 34 | WIN |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | over | 37.5 | 1.87 | +32.8% | 61 | WIN |
| Isaiah Williams | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.88 | +32.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kenneth Walker III | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | under | 92.5 | 1.90 | +31.6% | 102 | LOSS |
| Cyrus Allen | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.88 | +29.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Breece Hall | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | over | 40.5 | 1.89 | +27.5% | 61 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing TDs | under | 2.5 | 1.52 | +21.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Adonai Mitchell | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.10 | +20.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.89 | +15.6% | 48 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 242.5 | 1.90 | +15.3% | 242 | LOSS |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Passing Yards | over | 241.5 | 1.88 | +15.1% | 242 | WIN |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.72 | +14.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | Rushing Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.93 | +13.0% | 8 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.53 | +11.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Adonai Mitchell | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.88 | +11.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Cyrus Allen | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | +11.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.86 | +10.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Emmett Johnson | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.88 | +9.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Xavier Worthy | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.89 | +9.2% | 48 | LOSS |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.83 | +9.1% | 21 | LOSS |
| Mason Taylor | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.93 | +8.2% | 11 | WIN |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | over | 50.5 | 1.91 | +7.3% | 58 | WIN |
| Braelon Allen | New York Jets | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.28 | +7.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.91 | +6.5% | 49 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | over | 216.5 | 1.89 | +5.6% | 165 | LOSS |
| Adonai Mitchell | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 48.5 | 1.87 | +5.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.91 | +5.1% | 49 | WIN |
| Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | over | 5.5 | 2.14 | +5.0% | 5 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Rushing Yards | under | 6.5 | 1.88 | +3.0% | 8 | LOSS |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | Passing Yards | over | 218.5 | 1.88 | +2.8% | 165 | LOSS |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receiving Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.88 | +2.1% | 49 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.91 | +2.0% | 72 | LOSS |
| Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.76 | +1.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Kenyon Sadiq | New York Jets | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.56 | +0.3% | 4 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Kansas City Chiefs or New York Jets that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | 21 | 71.4% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets | 21 | 38.1% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 26, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | 30 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 30 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | 36 | 55.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | 34 | 50.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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