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NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Final score: New England Patriots 29 · 26 Buffalo Bills. 41 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 3.30 | +8.4% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -7 | 1.87 | +3.9% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.45 | +76.9% | 2 | WIN |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.32 | +59.6% | 1 | WIN |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.88 | +59.5% | 11 | WIN |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.88 | +58.1% | 11 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.07 | +50.2% | 2 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 40.5 | 1.90 | +39.2% | 42 | WIN |
| Dawson Knox | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.92 | +37.2% | 13 | WIN |
| DJ Moore | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.62 | +36.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.26 | +36.6% | 1 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 41.5 | 1.88 | +36.2% | 42 | WIN |
| Keon Coleman | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.03 | +34.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.69 | +29.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 32.5 | 1.89 | +27.9% | 47 | WIN |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.77 | +26.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.93 | +22.2% | 54 | LOSS |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.92 | +21.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.90 | +20.4% | 7 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 232.5 | 1.89 | +19.8% | 269 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 29.5 | 1.87 | +19.2% | 62 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 31.5 | 1.92 | +17.5% | 62 | WIN |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.85 | +14.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 42.5 | 1.88 | +13.9% | 53 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.38 | +13.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 43.5 | 1.88 | +11.6% | 53 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.88 | +11.6% | 27 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.92 | +10.0% | 27 | WIN |
| Keon Coleman | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.91 | +8.4% | 116 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.87 | +8.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | Rushing Yards | under | 30.5 | 1.91 | +7.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills | Receiving Yards | under | 47.5 | 1.88 | +7.3% | 7 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.90 | +3.7% | 58 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.92 | +2.5% | 15 | LOSS |
| Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.17 | +1.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.90 | +1.2% | 58 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.67 | +0.9% | 3 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.89 | +0.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.21 | +0.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 0.5 | 2.72 | +0.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.83 | +0.0% | 5 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Buffalo Bills or New England Patriotsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | 59 | 52.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | 43 | 41.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | 32 | 40.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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