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NFL · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Final score: Green Bay Packers 45 · 27 New England Patriots. 28 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | -3.5 | 1.98 | +4.1% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.57 | +0.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.02 | +77.7% | 5 | LOSS |
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.91 | +75.5% | 49 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 69.5 | 1.88 | +58.7% | 164 | LOSS |
| Savion Williams | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.88 | +52.5% | 25 | LOSS |
| Savion Williams | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.39 | +52.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.74 | +52.0% | 10 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.92 | +48.0% | 5 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.94 | +41.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.89 | +35.1% | 36 | WIN |
| Josh Jacobs | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.88 | +31.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 229.5 | 1.90 | +30.1% | 299 | WIN |
| Josh Jacobs | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.86 | +28.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Corey Kiner | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.88 | +27.1% | 55 | LOSS |
| Mack Hollins | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 1.61 | +26.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.64 | +20.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Josh Jacobs | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | over | 45.5 | 1.87 | +20.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.88 | +19.3% | 102 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.87 | +17.2% | 32 | WIN |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 37.5 | 1.91 | +14.6% | 35 | LOSS |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing Yards | under | 274.5 | 1.88 | +13.1% | 372 | LOSS |
| Tucker Kraft | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +11.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 68.5 | 1.90 | +10.8% | 171 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.89 | +6.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.90 | +2.8% | 3 | WIN |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +2.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 3.5 | 1.87 | +0.3% | 13 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New England Patriots or Green Bay Packers that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 29 | 37.9% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 30, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers | 29 | 34.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | 24 | 66.7% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 23, 2026 | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears | 41 | 61.0% | View → |
| Mon, Oct 19, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | 30 | 60.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | 34 | 50.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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