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MLB · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Final score: San Diego Padres 2 · 3 Milwaukee Brewers. 29 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Harris | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.86 | +73.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Hays | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.00 | +72.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ethan Salas | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.18 | +67.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Cronenworth | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.16 | +66.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.85 | +63.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.25 | +56.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.42 | +49.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.56 | +48.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Xander Bogaerts | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.47 | +41.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.41 | +38.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| William Contreras | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.84 | +33.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.97 | +32.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Cooper Pratt | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.43 | +28.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Christian Yelich | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.23 | +27.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 2.79 | +25.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luis Lara | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.42 | +21.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Garrett Mitchell | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.28 | +19.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.26 | +15.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.79 | +11.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jake Cronenworth | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.06 | +11.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers | Strikeouts | under | 7.5 | 2.21 | +6.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Joey Ortiz | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.24 | +6.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Ethan Salas | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.18 | +6.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Joey Ortiz | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.49 | +6.0% | 0 | LOSS |
| Andrew Vaughn | Milwaukee Brewers | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.03 | +4.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dustin Harris | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.81 | +3.6% | 2 | WIN |
| Luis Lara | Milwaukee Brewers | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.21 | +2.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.51 | +1.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Austin Hays | San Diego Padres | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.94 | +1.4% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Milwaukee Brewers or San Diego Padresthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Sep 30, 2026 | Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres | 27 | 25.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 33.3% | View → |
| Sat, Sep 26, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers | 26 | 42.3% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies | 5 | 20.0% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 | 14.3% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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