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NFL · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Final score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 · 16 Dallas Cowboys. 24 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 4.60 | +38.0% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 47.5 | 1.87 | +9.9% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | -8.5 | 1.95 | +3.5% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.61 | +49.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.88 | +40.3% | 17 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 10.5 | 1.89 | +37.3% | 10 | LOSS |
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.88 | +30.3% | 19 | WIN |
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.89 | +26.1% | 64 | LOSS |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.98 | +25.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.87 | +23.1% | 165 | WIN |
| George Pickens | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.89 | +19.6% | 130 | WIN |
| Ryan Flournoy | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.88 | +17.4% | 90 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.23 | +15.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Cade Otton | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.02 | +14.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Passing Yards | over | 266.5 | 1.89 | +13.1% | 316 | WIN |
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.85 | +12.8% | 3 | WIN |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys | Receiving Yards | over | 80.5 | 1.88 | +12.7% | 9 | LOSS |
| George Pickens | Dallas Cowboys | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.91 | +12.4% | 9 | WIN |
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +12.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.88 | +11.1% | 18 | WIN |
| Javonte Williams | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | under | 69.5 | 1.91 | +9.4% | 45 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Passing TDs | under | 2.5 | 1.47 | +9.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | Rushing Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.86 | +5.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 34.5 | 1.91 | +0.6% | 38 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Dallas Cowboys or Tampa Bay Buccaneersthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 35 | 52.9% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | 38 | 52.6% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | 55 | 63.6% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 48.4% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 14, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | 27 | 25.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 75.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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