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NFL · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Final score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 · 27 Chicago Bears. 31 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 3.20 | +2.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.85 | +58.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.90 | +38.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.59 | +37.4% | 3 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.19 | +37.1% | 0 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 21.5 | 1.88 | +36.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.87 | +31.5% | 38 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.81 | +31.1% | 4 | WIN |
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.89 | +26.4% | 76 | LOSS |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.23 | +21.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Ted Hurst III | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.01 | +20.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Yards | under | 211.5 | 1.90 | +19.8% | 243 | LOSS |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.88 | +17.5% | 54 | LOSS |
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 0.5 | 2.23 | +17.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.59 | +17.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Tez Johnson | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.69 | +16.6% | 2 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.84 | +16.4% | 60 | WIN |
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 3.5 | 1.88 | +14.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.52 | +13.9% | 4 | WIN |
| Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.88 | +11.2% | 60 | LOSS |
| Cade Otton | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.87 | +10.7% | 25 | WIN |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.88 | +9.8% | 97 | LOSS |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.20 | +6.8% | 7 | LOSS |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.85 | +6.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Ted Hurst III | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | over | 22.5 | 1.87 | +6.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Emeka Egbuka | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.10 | +6.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.93 | +3.5% | 32 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.88 | +3.4% | 28 | LOSS |
| Kenny Gainwell | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.89 | +2.1% | 16 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 62.5 | 1.91 | +0.4% | 31 | WIN |
| Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Rushing Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.87 | +0.2% | 97 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Chicago Bears or Tampa Bay Buccaneers that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 35 | 54.3% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | 39 | 69.2% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 23, 2026 | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears | 41 | 61.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 | 54.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | 37 | 40.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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