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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Final score: Chicago Bears 7 · 31 Green Bay Packers. 44 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.80 | +1.9% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | 1.5 | 1.91 | +1.2% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 16.5 | 1.92 | +87.7% | 6 | WIN |
| Kaleb Johnson | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.88 | +85.6% | 26 | WIN |
| Kaleb Johnson | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.89 | +84.1% | 26 | WIN |
| Tyson Bagent | Chicago Bears | Passing Yards | under | 219.5 | 1.90 | +81.5% | 87 | WIN |
| Tyson Bagent | Chicago Bears | Passing Yards | under | 217.5 | 1.88 | +79.2% | 87 | WIN |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.98 | +78.6% | 6 | LOSS |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.91 | +73.8% | 123 | LOSS |
| Tyson Bagent | Chicago Bears | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.81 | +72.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Matthew Golden | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.89 | +71.0% | 123 | LOSS |
| Skyy Moore | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.87 | +61.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Skyy Moore | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.79 | +53.2% | 1 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 84.5 | 1.89 | +44.4% | 43 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 83.5 | 1.91 | +44.2% | 43 | WIN |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.93 | +43.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.39 | +36.5% | 1 | LOSS |
| D'Andre Swift | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.89 | +26.7% | 30 | LOSS |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 63.5 | 1.88 | +25.7% | 143 | LOSS |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 8.5 | 1.87 | +25.0% | 8 | LOSS |
| Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.93 | +24.9% | 8 | LOSS |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.91 | +22.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 61.5 | 1.88 | +21.8% | 143 | LOSS |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.93 | +21.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Tucker Kraft | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.87 | +20.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing Yards | under | 243.5 | 1.88 | +19.2% | 367 | LOSS |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 6.5 | 1.86 | +17.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 47.5 | 1.91 | +16.1% | 47 | LOSS |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Green Bay Packers | Rushing Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.93 | +13.9% | 31 | LOSS |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing Yards | under | 236.5 | 1.89 | +13.7% | 367 | LOSS |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 48.5 | 1.88 | +11.9% | 47 | LOSS |
| Tucker Kraft | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.91 | +11.9% | 64 | LOSS |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.94 | +11.7% | 6 | LOSS |
| Tyson Bagent | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.87 | +9.7% | 17 | LOSS |
| Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.78 | +9.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Green Bay Packers | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.30 | +8.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.93 | +7.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Green Bay Packers | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +7.0% | 6 | LOSS |
| Tyson Bagent | Chicago Bears | Rushing Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.93 | +4.9% | 17 | LOSS |
| Kalif Raymond | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.62 | +4.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Rome Odunze | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.90 | +4.5% | 40 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.65 | +3.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Luther Burden III | Chicago Bears | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.85 | +1.4% | 4 | WIN |
| Colston Loveland | Chicago Bears | Receiving Yards | under | 37.5 | 1.91 | +0.9% | 19 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Green Bay Packers or Chicago Bears that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 35 | 52.9% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 35 | 71.4% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 29, 2026 | Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | 50 | 66.0% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | 45 | 64.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 20, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 41.7% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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