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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Final score: Cincinnati Bengals 31 · 24 Miami Dolphins. 33 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 3.80 | +14.0% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.99 | +81.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 45.5 | 1.90 | +77.2% | 88 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.90 | +74.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 43.5 | 1.89 | +74.2% | 88 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.88 | +68.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.00 | +65.8% | 6 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | under | 0.5 | 2.56 | +55.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 45.5 | 1.88 | +50.7% | 43 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.90 | +49.9% | 43 | WIN |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.30 | +36.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Chris Bell | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.88 | +32.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Will Kacmarek | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 6.5 | 1.85 | +30.0% | 5 | LOSS |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.87 | +28.6% | 30 | LOSS |
| Chris Bell | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.80 | +26.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.77 | +23.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.86 | +22.3% | 30 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.93 | +21.9% | 68 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 189.5 | 1.90 | +19.9% | 137 | WIN |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | +19.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.88 | +17.9% | 10 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Wright | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 23.5 | 1.92 | +17.2% | 11 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 33.5 | 1.92 | +16.3% | 74 | LOSS |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.07 | +12.6% | 4 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 76.5 | 1.91 | +12.3% | 77 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 20.5 | 1.86 | +11.4% | 21 | WIN |
| Jaylen Wright | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.86 | +10.8% | 11 | WIN |
| Will Kacmarek | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.68 | +9.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 30.5 | 1.89 | +7.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 31.5 | 1.87 | +6.8% | 74 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.91 | +5.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 1.88 | +5.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.89 | +2.0% | 22 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | 44 | 43.2% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | 41 | 39.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 50 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | 20 | 45.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 75.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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