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NFL · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Final score: Detroit Lions 19 · 9 Miami Dolphins. 36 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | 6 | 1.89 | +3.1% | WIN |
| Spread | away | 6.5 | 1.93 | +2.9% | WIN |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 3.35 | +0.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 69.5 | 1.90 | +83.6% | 55 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.88 | +82.1% | 55 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.93 | +77.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 7.5 | 1.93 | +67.8% | 9 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.84 | +65.3% | 9 | LOSS |
| Sione Vaki | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 17.5 | 1.90 | +64.5% | 14 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.09 | +41.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 43.5 | 1.90 | +40.1% | 21 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 96.5 | 1.91 | +34.5% | 74 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Rushing Yards | under | 97.5 | 1.88 | +33.6% | 74 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 49.5 | 1.88 | +32.5% | 31 | LOSS |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.68 | +29.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.88 | +29.0% | 31 | LOSS |
| Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.01 | +26.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.54 | +23.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.01 | +21.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.90 | +20.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receptions | over | 6.5 | 2.11 | +18.2% | 8 | WIN |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing Yards | over | 258.5 | 1.90 | +17.8% | 170 | LOSS |
| Caleb Douglas | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 40.5 | 1.88 | +17.2% | 70 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 30.5 | 1.88 | +13.2% | 7 | LOSS |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.63 | +11.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 77.5 | 1.88 | +7.3% | 86 | LOSS |
| Chris Bell | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.92 | +6.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.92 | +6.0% | 9 | LOSS |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 52.5 | 1.87 | +5.6% | 32 | WIN |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 75.5 | 1.90 | +5.3% | 86 | LOSS |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 208.5 | 1.89 | +4.6% | 128 | WIN |
| Chris Bell | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.55 | +3.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.87 | +1.7% | 14 | WIN |
| Caleb Douglas | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.70 | +1.2% | 6 | LOSS |
| Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions | Receiving Yards | under | 50.5 | 1.88 | +0.8% | 32 | WIN |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 38.5 | 1.90 | +0.0% | 14 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Miami Dolphins or Detroit Lions that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 29 | 37.9% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | 38 | 52.6% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 30 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | 24 | 66.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | 33 | 45.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | 28 | 39.3% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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