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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Final score: Denver Broncos 23 · 17 Los Angeles Chargers. 18 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.54 | +1.2% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 41.5 | 1.95 | +1.0% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.38 | +84.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.04 | +38.2% | 2 | WIN |
| J.K. Dobbins | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 52.5 | 1.87 | +33.4% | 68 | WIN |
| Troy Franklin | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.85 | +31.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | over | 41.5 | 1.90 | +30.2% | 33 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +19.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.90 | +16.8% | 10 | WIN |
| Jaylen Waddle | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 55.5 | 1.90 | +16.6% | 19 | WIN |
| Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers | Receiving Yards | over | 6.5 | 1.93 | +13.5% | 6 | LOSS |
| Keaton Mitchell | Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.86 | +9.1% | 11 | WIN |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.11 | +8.9% | 2 | LOSS |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Rushing Yards | over | 26.5 | 1.93 | +8.7% | 7 | LOSS |
| Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | over | 38.5 | 1.90 | +5.7% | 18 | LOSS |
| RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos | Receiving Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.93 | +4.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | Passing Yards | over | 202.5 | 1.88 | +2.4% | 121 | LOSS |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | Passing Yards | under | 220.5 | 1.89 | +1.9% | 123 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 25 | 56.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | 27 | 46.2% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 28, 2026 | Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | 46 | 56.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | 43 | 41.9% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 15, 2026 | Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 48.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers | 19 | 68.4% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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