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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Final score: Las Vegas Raiders 17 · 45 New England Patriots. 38 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | -3.5 | 1.91 | +11.2% | WIN |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 1.51 | +5.7% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 45.5 | 1.87 | +1.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.39 | +111.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.32 | +100.9% | 5 | LOSS |
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.88 | +80.2% | 44 | LOSS |
| Cody White | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.91 | +78.2% | 44 | LOSS |
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.88 | +75.6% | 57 | LOSS |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.29 | +61.0% | 1 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.94 | +40.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.88 | +36.9% | 25 | WIN |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 227.5 | 1.88 | +31.6% | 374 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 44.5 | 1.88 | +31.5% | 22 | LOSS |
| Brock Bowers | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 75.5 | 1.91 | +30.8% | 110 | LOSS |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 45.5 | 1.89 | +30.5% | 22 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 230.5 | 1.89 | +29.3% | 374 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.93 | +28.5% | 21 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.86 | +27.4% | 21 | WIN |
| Brock Bowers | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 73.5 | 1.91 | +26.8% | 110 | LOSS |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing Yards | under | 231.5 | 1.90 | +23.7% | 243 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 36.5 | 1.91 | +21.1% | 64 | WIN |
| Brock Bowers | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 2.02 | +19.2% | 8 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | over | 37.5 | 1.90 | +18.1% | 64 | WIN |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.89 | +16.3% | 16 | WIN |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +10.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.81 | +10.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.97 | +9.9% | 4 | LOSS |
| Romeo Doubs | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 48.5 | 1.90 | +9.7% | 16 | WIN |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.09 | +9.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.89 | +9.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.86 | +8.0% | 91 | WIN |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 41.5 | 1.88 | +7.4% | 41 | WIN |
| Tre Tucker | Las Vegas Raiders | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.91 | +6.4% | 41 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.02 | +5.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | over | 38.5 | 1.88 | +4.1% | 44 | WIN |
| TreVeyon Henderson | New England Patriots | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.41 | +2.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.98 | +2.7% | 3 | WIN |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.92 | +0.6% | 65 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New England Patriots or Las Vegas Raiders that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 23 | 34.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 41 | 70.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | 59 | 52.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | 20 | 45.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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