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NFL · Sun, Nov 1, 2026
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Final score: New England Patriots 24 · 19 Miami Dolphins. 29 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 3.70 | +11.0% | LOSS |
| Spread | away | 7 | 1.95 | +6.1% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.02 | +88.3% | 5 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 63.5 | 1.91 | +82.0% | 69 | LOSS |
| Efton Chism III | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 27.5 | 1.91 | +77.4% | 37 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.88 | +72.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Corey Kiner | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.90 | +68.3% | 38 | LOSS |
| Ollie Gordon II | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.81 | +64.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Will Kacmarek | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 0.5 | 1.98 | +60.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.84 | +43.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.71 | +35.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | under | 40.5 | 1.90 | +35.1% | 40 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing TDs | under | 0.5 | 2.68 | +33.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Rushing Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.90 | +28.7% | 82 | LOSS |
| Will Kacmarek | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | over | 0.5 | 1.86 | +28.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | Passing Yards | over | 237.5 | 1.90 | +28.4% | 199 | LOSS |
| DeMario Douglas | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.88 | +27.1% | 76 | LOSS |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.70 | +25.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Kyle Williams | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 24.5 | 1.91 | +22.9% | 43 | LOSS |
| Hunter Henry | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.75 | +16.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.22 | +15.1% | 3 | LOSS |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.65 | +14.7% | 4 | LOSS |
| Greg Dulcich | Miami Dolphins | Receiving Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.92 | +14.2% | 43 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | over | 31.5 | 1.87 | +12.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Eli Raridon | New England Patriots | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.84 | +9.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Malik Washington | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 5.5 | 1.84 | +8.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Jaylen Wright | Miami Dolphins | Rushing Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.88 | +7.3% | 5 | WIN |
| Corey Kiner | New England Patriots | Receiving Yards | under | 1.5 | 1.88 | +7.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | Passing Yards | under | 181.5 | 1.88 | +6.5% | 211 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Miami Dolphins or New England Patriots that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 30 | 50.0% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 23, 2026 | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears | 41 | 61.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 18, 2026 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | 34 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | 33 | 45.5% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | 38 | 44.7% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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