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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Final score: Minnesota Vikings 23 · 13 New Orleans Saints. 31 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 1.77 | +3.5% | WIN |
| Spread | away | 2.5 | 1.95 | +2.3% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 41.5 | 1.93 | +0.4% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 77.5 | 1.90 | +56.4% | 79 | LOSS |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.76 | +53.0% | 6 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Rushing Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.88 | +41.4% | 51 | WIN |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | over | 9.5 | 1.91 | +38.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 41.5 | 1.88 | +35.9% | 16 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 42.5 | 1.87 | +32.7% | 16 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 15.5 | 1.87 | +30.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.88 | +29.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing Yards | over | 234.5 | 1.88 | +27.6% | 96 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 14.5 | 1.88 | +27.4% | 0 | WIN |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.91 | +26.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Passing Yards | under | 214.5 | 1.89 | +25.4% | 229 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing Yards | over | 237.5 | 1.88 | +24.6% | 96 | LOSS |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.90 | +23.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Passing Yards | under | 212.5 | 1.88 | +22.8% | 229 | LOSS |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.57 | +22.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.68 | +21.5% | 4 | WIN |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 80.5 | 1.89 | +19.1% | 46 | LOSS |
| T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.80 | +19.0% | 1 | WIN |
| Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.19 | +17.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | under | 34.5 | 1.86 | +17.3% | 12 | WIN |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | over | 81.5 | 1.88 | +16.8% | 46 | LOSS |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 2.64 | +16.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 4.5 | 2.13 | +16.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| Noah Fant | New Orleans Saints | Receiving Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.88 | +15.2% | 7 | WIN |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Rushing Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.93 | +15.1% | 12 | WIN |
| Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | over | 6.5 | 2.03 | +9.2% | 4 | LOSS |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.76 | +6.8% | 2 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving New Orleans Saints or Minnesota Vikings that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 6, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 25 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | 38 | 71.1% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 48.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 41.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | 21 | 33.3% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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