Private North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgPrivate North American Sports ConsultingLimited AccessNBA · NHL · NFL · MLBVerified Track Record · 2026 YTDBy Application OnlySports betting carries real risk · Past results don’t guarantee future ones18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
NBA · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Final score: Miami Heat 129 · 117 Atlanta Hawks. 28 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | home | -2.5 | 1.87 | +4.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.88 | +86.0% | 17 | LOSS |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Atlanta Hawks | Points | under | 19.5 | 1.82 | +80.2% | 23 | LOSS |
| Davion Mitchell | Miami Heat | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.96 | +77.9% | 10 | WIN |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Points | over | 12.5 | 1.98 | +73.8% | 18 | WIN |
| Davion Mitchell | Miami Heat | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.06 | +73.5% | 10 | LOSS |
| Jalen Johnson | Atlanta Hawks | Points | under | 22.5 | 1.96 | +71.4% | 12 | WIN |
| Jalen Johnson | Atlanta Hawks | Assists | under | 6.5 | 2.05 | +63.5% | 11 | LOSS |
| Klay Thompson | Miami Heat | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.86 | +63.5% | 3 | LOSS |
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 2.5 | 2.24 | +62.1% | 6 | LOSS |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | Miami Heat | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.85 | +59.2% | 14 | WIN |
| Klay Thompson | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.09 | +44.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Aaron Wiggins | Atlanta Hawks | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.98 | +39.9% | 10 | WIN |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 31.5 | 1.92 | +39.2% | 24 | WIN |
| Dyson Daniels | Atlanta Hawks | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.85 | +35.6% | 7 | LOSS |
| Dyson Daniels | Atlanta Hawks | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 2.11 | +34.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Atlanta Hawks | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.67 | +29.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Onyeka Okongwu | Atlanta Hawks | Rebounds | over | 6.5 | 1.75 | +19.0% | 4 | LOSS |
| Jalen Johnson | Atlanta Hawks | Rebounds | under | 9.5 | 1.99 | +15.1% | 9 | WIN |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Atlanta Hawks | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.74 | +14.9% | 3 | WIN |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 18.5 | 1.85 | +12.5% | 24 | LOSS |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.68 | +11.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Aaron Wiggins | Atlanta Hawks | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 1.58 | +10.0% | 4 | WIN |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.79 | +9.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Dyson Daniels | Atlanta Hawks | Assists | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +7.3% | 7 | LOSS |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 8.5 | 1.89 | +7.2% | 9 | WIN |
| Onyeka Okongwu | Atlanta Hawks | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.83 | +4.9% | 11 | LOSS |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Assists | under | 6.5 | 1.72 | +0.2% | 3 | WIN |
Recent NBA games for these teams
Other games involving Atlanta Hawks or Miami Heat that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 27, 2026 | Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets | 26 | 53.8% | View → |
| Sat, Oct 24, 2026 | Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat | 30 | 66.7% | View → |
| Fri, Oct 23, 2026 | Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets | 15 | 66.7% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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