MLB · Sun, May 10, 2026
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Final score: Seattle Mariners 1 – 2 Chicago White Sox. 48 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 11.00 | +230.0% | LOSS |
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.66 | +14.7% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 6.5 | 1.86 | +8.1% | LOSS |
| Game Total | under | 9.5 | 1.89 | +4.8% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 7.5 | 1.89 | +0.5% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.50 | +230.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Josh Naylor | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 7.25 | +203.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +121.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Luke Raley | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.25 | +103.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +89.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Josh Naylor | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +88.1% | 2 | WIN |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +79.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Rob Refsnyder | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.60 | +76.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.00 | +69.7% | 1 | WIN |
| Cole Young | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +60.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Drew Romo | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.89 | +58.9% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chase Meidroth | Chicago White Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.35 | +48.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.95 | +46.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +45.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 2.20 | +40.4% | 9 | LOSS |
| Josh Naylor | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.83 | +39.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.87 | +36.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Edgar Quero | Chicago White Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.20 | +31.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| J.P. Crawford | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.60 | +30.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Jarred Kelenic | Chicago White Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.40 | +26.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.38 | +26.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.83 | +25.8% | 9 | WIN |
| Leo Rivas | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.88 | +19.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners | Strikeouts | under | 6.5 | 1.70 | +18.3% | 9 | LOSS |
| Tristan Peters | Chicago White Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.38 | +17.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.23 | +17.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.22 | +16.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Jarred Kelenic | Chicago White Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +15.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Cole Young | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.95 | +15.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Luke Raley | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.20 | +14.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tristan Peters | Chicago White Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.30 | +13.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brendan Donovan | Seattle Mariners | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.41 | +9.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Chase Meidroth | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.34 | +8.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Rob Refsnyder | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.42 | +8.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.95 | +8.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | under | 3.5 | 1.09 | +7.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Brendan Donovan | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.83 | +7.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Dominic Canzone | Seattle Mariners | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.26 | +6.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | under | 2.5 | 1.09 | +5.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Sam Antonacci | Chicago White Sox | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.30 | +3.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Rob Refsnyder | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.06 | +2.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.44 | +2.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Tristan Peters | Chicago White Sox | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.27 | +0.3% | 0 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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