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MLB · Fri, Aug 21, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Final score: Tampa Bay Rays 3 · 5 Baltimore Orioles. 11 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 8.5 | 1.97 | +0.8% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Mateo | Tampa Bay Rays | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.13 | +30.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.07 | +22.4% | 3 | WIN |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.10 | +14.5% | 5 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.43 | +13.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Yandy Diaz | Tampa Bay Rays | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.04 | +11.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | over | 1.5 | 2.30 | +7.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jackson Holliday | Baltimore Orioles | Total Bases | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +7.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Carlos Narvaez | Baltimore Orioles | Hits | under | 0.5 | 1.72 | +5.6% | n/a | PUSH |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays | Strikeouts | under | 5.5 | 1.69 | +2.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 1.88 | +2.0% | 6 | WIN |
Recent MLB games for these teams
Other games involving Baltimore Orioles or Tampa Bay Raysthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 29.4% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 45.5% | View → |
| Fri, Sep 25, 2026 | Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees | 23 | 52.2% | View → |
| Thu, Sep 24, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 11 | 36.4% | View → |
| Wed, Sep 23, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 60.0% | View → |
| Tue, Sep 22, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees | 5 | 40.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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