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NFL · Fri, Oct 2, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 24 · 27 Cleveland Browns. 36 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 2.47 | +58.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Rushing Yards | under | 57.5 | 1.88 | +57.3% | 53 | WIN |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Rushing Yards | under | 55.5 | 1.91 | +55.9% | 53 | WIN |
| Raheim Sanders | Cleveland Browns | Rushing Yards | over | 5.5 | 1.85 | +53.2% | 9 | WIN |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.97 | +39.5% | 3 | WIN |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.90 | +37.6% | 15 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.79 | +37.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.90 | +35.5% | 33 | LOSS |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 32.5 | 1.92 | +29.9% | 15 | WIN |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.91 | +25.3% | 33 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | over | 1.5 | 1.92 | +24.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 12.5 | 1.86 | +23.8% | 36 | WIN |
| Jerry Jeudy | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.87 | +21.4% | 36 | WIN |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.72 | +20.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.93 | +19.6% | 27 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 44.5 | 1.91 | +17.2% | 115 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | under | 72.5 | 1.90 | +16.2% | 93 | LOSS |
| Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 16.5 | 1.88 | +13.1% | 27 | WIN |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 22.5 | 1.90 | +12.9% | 74 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +11.8% | 3 | LOSS |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.88 | +11.0% | 115 | LOSS |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.89 | +9.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Raheim Sanders | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 1.56 | +8.4% | 2 | WIN |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | under | 12.5 | 1.93 | +7.1% | 43 | LOSS |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.90 | +5.2% | 27 | LOSS |
| Raheim Sanders | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 11.5 | 1.87 | +5.1% | 7 | LOSS |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.88 | +4.9% | 3 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 39.5 | 1.89 | +4.8% | 115 | LOSS |
| Quinshon Judkins | Cleveland Browns | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.48 | +4.3% | 6 | WIN |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | over | 211.5 | 1.88 | +4.2% | 299 | WIN |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.90 | +4.1% | 17 | LOSS |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Cleveland Browns | Receiving Yards | over | 40.5 | 1.90 | +2.3% | 27 | LOSS |
| Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers | Rushing Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.90 | +2.1% | 93 | LOSS |
| Roman Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.88 | +2.1% | 74 | LOSS |
| Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Passing Yards | over | 213.5 | 1.88 | +2.1% | 299 | WIN |
| DK Metcalf | Pittsburgh Steelers | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.86 | +2.0% | 5 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Cleveland Browns or Pittsburgh Steelersthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns | 43 | 46.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 50 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 44.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 43.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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