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NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Final score: Indianapolis Colts 30 · 13 Washington Commanders. 42 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 47.5 | 1.98 | +9.9% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 46.5 | 1.91 | +9.9% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.18 | +106.6% | 5 | LOSS |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 1.94 | +83.3% | 3 | WIN |
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 24.5 | 1.87 | +72.6% | 42 | LOSS |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.91 | +71.2% | 41 | WIN |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 70.5 | 1.89 | +70.1% | 16 | WIN |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.88 | +64.0% | 41 | WIN |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 65.5 | 1.89 | +63.0% | 16 | WIN |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 60.5 | 1.88 | +60.5% | 15 | WIN |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 62.5 | 1.91 | +59.6% | 16 | WIN |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 58.5 | 1.87 | +56.4% | 15 | WIN |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 46.5 | 1.89 | +51.5% | 41 | WIN |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 54.5 | 1.89 | +50.7% | 15 | WIN |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | under | 5.5 | 1.95 | +50.0% | 35 | LOSS |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.58 | +49.8% | 2 | LOSS |
| Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.71 | +49.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Laquon Treadwell | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 13.5 | 1.89 | +48.1% | 42 | LOSS |
| Treylon Burks | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.19 | +45.1% | 1 | WIN |
| Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 29.5 | 1.88 | +39.8% | 35 | LOSS |
| Tyler Warren | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 2.09 | +38.7% | 5 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 11.5 | 1.93 | +29.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 26.5 | 1.86 | +28.8% | 35 | LOSS |
| Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 25.5 | 1.88 | +26.8% | 35 | LOSS |
| Stefon Diggs | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.93 | +25.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 93.5 | 1.90 | +24.0% | 95 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 92.5 | 1.91 | +23.2% | 95 | LOSS |
| Treylon Burks | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.88 | +22.6% | 47 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 19.5 | 1.89 | +19.5% | 2 | WIN |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Rushing Yards | under | 89.5 | 1.90 | +18.3% | 95 | LOSS |
| Stefon Diggs | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.91 | +17.8% | 35 | WIN |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.07 | +17.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 18.5 | 1.89 | +15.0% | 2 | WIN |
| Keenan Allen | Indianapolis Colts | Receiving Yards | under | 36.5 | 1.87 | +10.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.58 | +10.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.07 | +10.2% | 1 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing Yards | under | 226.5 | 1.88 | +8.6% | 143 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing Yards | under | 225.5 | 1.89 | +8.2% | 143 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.88 | +7.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders | Passing Yards | under | 211.5 | 1.89 | +7.1% | 46 | WIN |
| Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders | Passing Yards | under | 206.5 | 1.90 | +3.3% | 46 | WIN |
| Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | Passing Yards | under | 219.5 | 1.88 | +1.6% | 143 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Washington Commanders or Indianapolis Coltsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | 31 | 77.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | 58 | 53.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 47.6% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | 23 | 60.9% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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