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NFL · Sun, Oct 4, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Final score: Jacksonville Jaguars 22 · 17 Cincinnati Bengals. 44 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.21 | +22.4% | WIN |
| Spread | away | -2.5 | 1.98 | +20.6% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 2.17 | +74.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.92 | +73.6% | 73 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | under | 55.5 | 1.88 | +68.8% | 73 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | under | 53.5 | 1.88 | +66.0% | 73 | LOSS |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | under | 10.5 | 1.92 | +60.2% | 18 | LOSS |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 19.5 | 1.88 | +50.2% | 35 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 2.22 | +33.5% | 11 | WIN |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.81 | +31.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 78.5 | 1.91 | +27.2% | 27 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 15.5 | 1.93 | +25.9% | 7 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.88 | +25.5% | 7 | LOSS |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 60.5 | 1.87 | +22.5% | 10 | LOSS |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | under | 8.5 | 1.90 | +22.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Rushing Yards | over | 14.5 | 1.91 | +22.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 61.5 | 1.88 | +20.7% | 10 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | under | 264.5 | 1.89 | +19.3% | 227 | WIN |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing TDs | over | 1.5 | 1.72 | +17.6% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 84.5 | 1.91 | +16.7% | 27 | LOSS |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | over | 3.5 | 1.78 | +15.7% | 3 | LOSS |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | under | 260.5 | 1.90 | +15.0% | 227 | WIN |
| Brenton Strange | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.83 | +14.7% | 7 | LOSS |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.88 | +14.1% | 40 | WIN |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.87 | +13.7% | 71 | WIN |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 7.5 | 1.74 | +13.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 39.5 | 1.88 | +12.7% | 33 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 86.5 | 1.90 | +12.5% | 27 | LOSS |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | over | 40.5 | 1.91 | +11.1% | 33 | LOSS |
| Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | Rushing Yards | over | 65.5 | 1.88 | +10.8% | 10 | LOSS |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 269.5 | 1.88 | +9.4% | 428 | LOSS |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 6.5 | 2.16 | +9.1% | 3 | WIN |
| Mike Gesicki | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 2.5 | 2.04 | +8.6% | 3 | LOSS |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.89 | +8.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | Passing Yards | under | 255.5 | 1.89 | +8.0% | 227 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 267.5 | 1.89 | +8.0% | 428 | LOSS |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing Yards | under | 265.5 | 1.89 | +6.0% | 428 | LOSS |
| Brenton Strange | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | under | 35.5 | 1.87 | +4.9% | 95 | LOSS |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | under | 76.5 | 1.88 | +4.6% | 7 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | over | 59.5 | 1.88 | +3.0% | 157 | WIN |
| Samaje Perine | Cincinnati Bengals | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.86 | +2.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.89 | +2.2% | 11 | LOSS |
| Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars | Receiving Yards | under | 74.5 | 1.90 | +1.8% | 7 | WIN |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 2.64 | +0.8% | 1 | WIN |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Cincinnati Bengals or Jacksonville Jaguarsthat we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | 59 | 52.5% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 50 | 48.0% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 44.4% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 75.0% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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