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NFL · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Final score: New York Giants 27 · 27 Washington Commanders. 39 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | away | 0 | 2.45 | +10.5% | PUSH |
| Spread | away | -3.5 | 1.93 | +7.4% | WIN |
| Game Total | over | 41.5 | 1.87 | +5.7% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | New York Giants | Rushing Yards | over | 2.5 | 1.92 | +58.9% | 27 | WIN |
| Isaiah Likely | New York Giants | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 1.92 | +48.2% | 11 | LOSS |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | under | 51.5 | 1.91 | +48.1% | 82 | LOSS |
| Isaiah Likely | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | under | 42.5 | 1.92 | +38.5% | 94 | LOSS |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +38.3% | 0 | WIN |
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | over | 23.5 | 1.87 | +36.3% | 18 | LOSS |
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.88 | +33.7% | 18 | LOSS |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Passing Yards | under | 197.5 | 1.90 | +33.4% | 199 | LOSS |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | under | 5.5 | 1.93 | +31.2% | 0 | WIN |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | over | 28.5 | 1.89 | +29.3% | 103 | WIN |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Passing Yards | under | 190.5 | 1.90 | +25.9% | 199 | LOSS |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Rushing Yards | over | 30.5 | 1.92 | +25.0% | 103 | WIN |
| Darnell Mooney | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | over | 17.5 | 1.87 | +23.8% | 14 | LOSS |
| Darnell Mooney | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | over | 18.5 | 1.90 | +22.3% | 14 | LOSS |
| Darnell Mooney | New York Giants | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.96 | +20.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Jameis Winston | New York Giants | Passing Yards | under | 203.5 | 1.88 | +17.9% | 326 | LOSS |
| Jameis Winston | New York Giants | Passing Yards | under | 201.5 | 1.90 | +17.7% | 326 | LOSS |
| Malik Nabers | New York Giants | Receptions | under | 5.5 | 1.67 | +17.4% | 11 | LOSS |
| Malachi Fields | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | over | 25.5 | 1.92 | +16.5% | 20 | LOSS |
| Cam Skattebo | New York Giants | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.33 | +16.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Malik Nabers | New York Giants | Receptions | under | 4.5 | 2.18 | +16.0% | 11 | LOSS |
| Chig Okonkwo | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | over | 24.5 | 1.86 | +15.5% | 60 | WIN |
| Malik Nabers | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | under | 59.5 | 1.88 | +13.6% | 121 | LOSS |
| Cam Skattebo | New York Giants | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.52 | +13.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Terry McLaurin | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | over | 51.5 | 1.90 | +11.4% | 62 | WIN |
| Malik Nabers | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | under | 56.5 | 1.91 | +10.5% | 121 | LOSS |
| Jameis Winston | New York Giants | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.46 | +9.4% | 3 | LOSS |
| Terry McLaurin | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 2.24 | +9.4% | 4 | LOSS |
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Receiving Yards | under | 9.5 | 1.87 | +7.7% | 2 | WIN |
| Cam Skattebo | New York Giants | Receiving Yards | over | 13.5 | 1.93 | +6.9% | 12 | LOSS |
| Najee Harris | New York Giants | Rushing Yards | over | 27.5 | 1.90 | +6.3% | 9 | LOSS |
| Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | Passing TDs | under | 1.5 | 1.62 | +6.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Cam Skattebo | New York Giants | Rushing Yards | over | 55.5 | 1.88 | +4.1% | 59 | WIN |
| Rachaad White | Washington Commanders | Receptions | over | 1.5 | 1.64 | +1.4% | 1 | LOSS |
| Malachi Fields | New York Giants | Receptions | over | 2.5 | 2.34 | +0.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Chig Okonkwo | Washington Commanders | Receptions | under | 3.5 | 1.61 | +0.6% | 4 | LOSS |
Recent NFL games for these teams
Other games involving Washington Commanders or New York Giants that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | 32 | 43.8% | View → |
| Sun, Oct 4, 2026 | Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | 42 | 64.3% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Tennessee Titans at New York Giants | 41 | 70.7% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 27, 2026 | Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | 31 | 77.4% | View → |
| Mon, Sep 14, 2026 | Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | 27 | 25.9% | View → |
| Sun, Sep 13, 2026 | Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 47.6% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NFL edges drop at 01:00 ET
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