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NBA · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Final score: Miami Heat 115 · 109 Utah Jazz. 21 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 228.5 | 1.95 | +20.5% | LOSS |
| Spread | home | 9.5 | 1.87 | +0.3% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | Miami Heat | Assists | under | 7.5 | 2.11 | +94.2% | 8 | LOSS |
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.97 | +88.8% | 2 | WIN |
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.83 | +81.2% | 14 | LOSS |
| Davion Mitchell | Miami Heat | Points | under | 13.5 | 1.85 | +80.1% | 19 | LOSS |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.81 | +76.9% | 13 | WIN |
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.90 | +68.5% | 7 | LOSS |
| Bobby Portis | Miami Heat | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.86 | +68.2% | 5 | LOSS |
| Klay Thompson | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.32 | +60.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.23 | +48.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Utah Jazz | Rebounds | under | 6.5 | 1.74 | +43.3% | 2 | WIN |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.29 | +40.3% | 4 | WIN |
| Bobby Portis | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.66 | +35.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Jaxson Hayes | Utah Jazz | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.88 | +35.5% | 6 | WIN |
| Josh Green | Utah Jazz | Points | over | 6.5 | 1.93 | +30.2% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 19.5 | 1.87 | +29.7% | 11 | WIN |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 30.5 | 1.95 | +28.9% | 30 | WIN |
| Josh Green | Utah Jazz | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.26 | +19.0% | 5 | WIN |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 11.5 | 1.97 | +10.0% | 11 | WIN |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 5.5 | 1.85 | +6.9% | 4 | LOSS |
Recent NBA games for these teams
Other games involving Utah Jazz or Miami Heat that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 9, 2026 | Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings | 24 | 50.0% | View → |
| Sat, Nov 7, 2026 | Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks | 8 | 50.0% | View → |
| Fri, Nov 6, 2026 | Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Thu, Nov 5, 2026 | Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers | 17 | 58.8% | View → |
| Thu, Nov 5, 2026 | Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans | 19 | 36.8% | View → |
| Tue, Nov 3, 2026 | Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs | 16 | 62.5% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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