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NBA · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings
Final score: Miami Heat 114 · 108 Sacramento Kings. 24 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Total | over | 238.5 | 1.94 | +5.7% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Points | under | 11.5 | 1.92 | +90.1% | 11 | WIN |
| Malik Monk | Sacramento Kings | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.97 | +87.8% | 9 | LOSS |
| Davion Mitchell | Miami Heat | Points | under | 12.5 | 1.91 | +81.2% | 17 | LOSS |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.81 | +76.9% | 6 | LOSS |
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Assists | under | 3.5 | 1.78 | +70.6% | 3 | WIN |
| Klay Thompson | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 2.5 | 2.42 | +67.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bobby Portis | Miami Heat | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.83 | +65.5% | 4 | LOSS |
| Davion Mitchell | Miami Heat | Assists | under | 7.5 | 1.71 | +57.4% | 11 | LOSS |
| Precious Achiuwa | Sacramento Kings | Points | under | 8.5 | 1.89 | +51.7% | 7 | WIN |
| Pelle Larsson | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.71 | +51.7% | 3 | WIN |
| Keegan Murray | Sacramento Kings | Points | over | 9.5 | 1.83 | +44.1% | 10 | WIN |
| Bobby Portis | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 5.5 | 2.01 | +37.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Klay Thompson | Miami Heat | Points | over | 11.5 | 1.89 | +36.0% | 23 | WIN |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.02 | +34.3% | 3 | LOSS |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 19.5 | 1.91 | +32.5% | 18 | WIN |
| Andrew Wiggins | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.74 | +31.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 3.5 | 2.06 | +26.2% | 4 | WIN |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 11.5 | 2.06 | +15.1% | 14 | LOSS |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 9.5 | 1.94 | +9.5% | 8 | WIN |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 29.5 | 1.85 | +9.4% | 29 | WIN |
| Zach LaVine | Sacramento Kings | Points | over | 21.5 | 1.97 | +7.3% | 15 | LOSS |
| De'Andre Hunter | Sacramento Kings | Points | over | 13.5 | 1.88 | +7.1% | 14 | WIN |
| Klay Thompson | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 1.5 | 1.67 | +6.2% | 4 | WIN |
Recent NBA games for these teams
Other games involving Sacramento Kings or Miami Heat that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6, 2026 | Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors | 17 | 47.1% | View → |
| Thu, Nov 5, 2026 | Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers | 17 | 58.8% | View → |
| Thu, Nov 5, 2026 | Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 26 | 50.0% | View → |
| Tue, Nov 3, 2026 | Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks | 14 | 35.7% | View → |
| Sun, Nov 1, 2026 | Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies | 18 | 55.6% | View → |
| Sat, Oct 31, 2026 | Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat | 14 | 42.9% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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