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NBA · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Final score: Miami Heat 100 · 120 Golden State Warriors. 17 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | away | -7.5 | 1.88 | +7.4% | LOSS |
| Game Total | over | 236.5 | 1.94 | +5.6% | LOSS |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | Golden State Warriors | Points | under | 15.5 | 1.83 | +67.4% | 9 | WIN |
| Draymond Green | Golden State Warriors | Points | over | 5.5 | 1.84 | +65.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 21.5 | 1.93 | +60.4% | 18 | WIN |
| Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors | Points | under | 26.5 | 1.92 | +45.0% | 29 | LOSS |
| Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 1.86 | +21.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Draymond Green | Golden State Warriors | Rebounds | over | 4.5 | 1.67 | +18.2% | 5 | WIN |
| Georges Niang | Golden State Warriors | Points | over | 7.5 | 1.85 | +17.3% | 13 | WIN |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 10.5 | 1.71 | +17.2% | 10 | WIN |
| Brandin Podziemski | Golden State Warriors | Rebounds | under | 5.5 | 1.68 | +12.3% | 6 | LOSS |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Rebounds | under | 11.5 | 1.98 | +10.6% | 14 | LOSS |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | Points | under | 29.5 | 1.86 | +10.0% | 20 | WIN |
| De'Anthony Melton | Golden State Warriors | Rebounds | over | 3.5 | 2.03 | +9.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Georges Niang | Golden State Warriors | Rebounds | under | 3.5 | 1.68 | +6.1% | 4 | LOSS |
| De'Anthony Melton | Golden State Warriors | Points | under | 10.5 | 1.82 | +2.5% | 5 | WIN |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | Assists | over | 3.5 | 1.65 | +1.1% | 0 | LOSS |
Recent NBA games for these teams
Other games involving Golden State Warriors or Miami Heat that we’ve published picks for.
| Date | Matchup | Picks | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5, 2026 | Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers | 17 | 58.8% | View → |
| Mon, Nov 2, 2026 | Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors | 11 | 54.5% | View → |
| Sat, Oct 31, 2026 | Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat | 14 | 42.9% | View → |
| Thu, Oct 29, 2026 | Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves | 18 | 44.4% | View → |
| Wed, Oct 28, 2026 | Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks | 28 | 46.4% | View → |
| Sat, Oct 24, 2026 | Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat | 30 | 66.7% | View → |
Tomorrow’s NBA edges drop at 01:00 ET
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