MLB · Thu, May 7, 2026
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
Final score: New York Mets 2 – 6 Colorado Rockies. 69 positive-EV NotaSportsGuru picks tracked for this game across match lines and player props, with the lines we played and the outcomes that followed.
Match line picks
The model’s positive-EV picks on totals, spreads and moneylines for this game.
| Market | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home | 0 | 2.82 | +26.0% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 11 | 1.87 | +18.8% | WIN |
| Game Total | under | 9.5 | 1.88 | +7.4% | WIN |
Player prop picks
Every player prop the model rated positive expected value for this game, with the recommended side, the line and the actual stat.
| Player | Team | Stat | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Johnston | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.75 | +174.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +160.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Edouard Julien | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 7.50 | +157.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.75 | +140.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Troy Johnston | Colorado Rockies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.50 | +124.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyler Freeman | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +116.3% | 0 | LOSS |
| Mark Vientos | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +110.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 6.25 | +104.1% | 0 | LOSS |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.10 | +90.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Andy Ibanez | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.82 | +89.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.80 | +87.5% | 0 | LOSS |
| Edouard Julien | Colorado Rockies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +84.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.30 | +84.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Brett Sullivan | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +80.8% | 0 | LOSS |
| Tyrone Taylor | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.95 | +77.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyrone Taylor | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.92 | +77.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 4.60 | +70.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Austin Slater | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.80 | +62.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Mark Vientos | New York Mets | Hits | over | 0.5 | 3.00 | +62.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Quintana | Colorado Rockies | Strikeouts | over | 2.5 | 2.00 | +60.7% | 2 | LOSS |
| Austin Slater | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.65 | +57.5% | 2 | LOSS |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.90 | +52.6% | 0 | LOSS |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.45 | +50.7% | 0 | LOSS |
| Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 5.25 | +46.4% | 0 | LOSS |
| Jose Quintana | Colorado Rockies | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 2.33 | +45.4% | 2 | LOSS |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets | Strikeouts | over | 4.5 | 2.28 | +39.2% | 6 | WIN |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.66 | +36.6% | 0 | WIN |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.75 | +31.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Jake McCarthy | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.51 | +30.1% | 2 | LOSS |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets | Strikeouts | over | 3.5 | 1.66 | +28.6% | 6 | WIN |
| Brett Sullivan | Colorado Rockies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 2.45 | +28.2% | 0 | LOSS |
| Edouard Julien | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.90 | +27.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.53 | +27.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyler Freeman | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.99 | +26.3% | 1 | LOSS |
| Mark Vientos | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.54 | +25.8% | 0 | WIN |
| Kyle Karros | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.41 | +25.7% | 1 | LOSS |
| Willi Castro | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.60 | +25.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Brett Sullivan | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.61 | +24.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyrone Taylor | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.30 | +22.9% | 1 | WIN |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.44 | +22.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.52 | +21.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Jake McCarthy | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | over | 0.5 | 3.80 | +20.9% | 5 | WIN |
| Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.67 | +20.4% | 0 | WIN |
| Austin Slater | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.49 | +20.1% | 0 | WIN |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.61 | +18.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Willi Castro | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.64 | +18.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Andy Ibanez | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.23 | +14.8% | 1 | WIN |
| Tyler Freeman | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.43 | +12.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Austin Slater | New York Mets | Hits | under | 2.5 | 1.14 | +12.2% | 2 | WIN |
| Kyle Karros | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.38 | +10.9% | 0 | WIN |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.86 | +10.0% | 1 | LOSS |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.45 | +7.7% | 0 | WIN |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.75 | +6.5% | 0 | WIN |
| Troy Johnston | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.95 | +5.9% | 1 | LOSS |
| Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.20 | +5.8% | 1 | LOSS |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.40 | +5.3% | 1 | WIN |
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.56 | +5.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Tyrone Taylor | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.51 | +4.1% | 1 | LOSS |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.55 | +3.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Willi Castro | Colorado Rockies | Hits | over | 0.5 | 1.87 | +3.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.48 | +3.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Willi Castro | Colorado Rockies | Hits | under | 1.5 | 1.27 | +2.5% | 1 | WIN |
| Willi Castro | Colorado Rockies | RBIs | under | 1.5 | 1.10 | +2.4% | 1 | WIN |
| Mark Vientos | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.70 | +2.0% | 0 | WIN |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | RBIs | under | 0.5 | 1.62 | +1.9% | 0 | WIN |
| Marcus Semien | New York Mets | Hits | under | 0.5 | 2.30 | +1.5% | 0 | WIN |
Tomorrow’s MLB edges drop at 01:00 ET
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